Pittsburgh Steelers ceiling and floor for 2023

Under Omar Khan, who succeeded Kevin Colbert as general manager last May, the Pittsburgh Steelers have had an uncharacteristically busy offseason that included significant roster turnover. How good the Steelers (9-8 in 2022) are is open for debate, but here's our prediction of the best- and worst-case scenarios for this season.

Ceiling: 13-4

Pittsburgh had a rough start in 2022, but QB Kenny Pickett (2,404 yards passing in 2022) helped the team turn things around following the Week 9 bye. The Steelers finished the season 7-2 as the rookie seemingly improved every week. If Pickett can take the leap many believe he will in 2023, Pittsburgh could be a dark-horse contender.

With a bolstered offensive line after the additions of first-round pick Broderick Jones and free-agent pickup Isaac Seumalo, Pittsburgh's pass and run game should greatly improve, which only adds to their contender case.

The schedule, ranked as the 25th-most difficult in the NFL, sets up favorably following a bye (Week 6), with games against the Rams, Jaguars, Titans and Packers. If the Steelers hit their stride during this stretch, they may find their way back into the postseason. (Complete schedule analysis here).

Floor: 9-8

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 16 years as Pittsburgh's head coach, and that seems unlikely to change in 2023. However, if Pickett doesn't improve, the team could have a season similar to 2022.

The Steelers face a difficult schedule at the beginning and end of the season, something no team wants. Pittsburgh hosts the 49ers and Browns in Weeks 1 and 2 and then finishes versus the Bengals, Seahawks and Ravens -- all playoff teams last season. A slow start and tough finish would not bode well for Pittsburgh.

It wouldn't be hard to argue that the Steelers will be the odd team out in a loaded AFC North, which features one of the best QBs in the NFL (Cincinnati's Joe Burrow), a former league MVP (Baltimore's Lamar Jackson) and a QB who led the league in passing yards in 2020 (Cleveland's Deshaun Watson).

The easiest way to the postseason is by winning your division, and that is far from guaranteed for Pittsburgh. If Pickett doesn't make the leap, the Steelers may miss the postseason for the seventh time under Tomlin.