As a Chicago Bears fan, watching Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers struggle to put up seven points made me almost as happy as a Bears victory does. Tonight, hopefully, the Bears can cap off a delightful week of football. Regardless of the outcome, having a little money on the game makes it even more enjoyable. Let’s roll out some bets and hope for some magic.
Here are a few of my favorites for tonight’s primetime matchup.
Bears +7
This is still a prop bets article, but the spread deserves a look. The money is on Pittsburgh to win and cover the spread, but are they really deserving of such a significant number? Seven points is a lot for an offense that averages 18.9 points per game. Additionally, in Pittsburgh’s four wins this season, they have won by an average of only 5.75 points.
The Bears are dealing with injuries to Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson, but they will get David Montgomery back, which could give them a solid one-two punch between him and Khalil Herbert out of the backfield. Maybe trusting the Bears in a primetime game under Matt Nagy isn’t the most comfortable bet in the world, but they should be able to keep this game close.
Justin Fields Over 182.5 Passing Yards (-110 on FanDuel)
Justin Fields has only gone over this number twice this season. Nonetheless, he played his best game of the year last week, completing 70 percent of his passes and rushing for over 100 yards. It was a solid showing as well as a confidence booster heading into tonight’s game. Will Matt Nagy finally take the training wheels off? No one knows. But I’m guessing he’s closer to 200 yards than 180.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Steelers stop the run well, ranking sixth in rush defense DVOA. However, they are average against the pass, sitting 15th in pass defense DVOA. Hammer the Over.
Allen Robinson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on FanDuel)
The Robinson-to-Fields connection hasn’t gotten going this season. A-Rob has only gone over this mark twice through eight games. However, it’s starting to pick up steam in the press, and that gives me hope for a squeaky wheel narrative tonight. Coming into this season, Robinson averaged 68.2 receiving yards per game. Darnell Mooney has developed nicely and become Fields’ favorite target, but this line for Robinson continues to creep down as the season has gone on.
Although it hasn’t paid off yet, I’m going to keep trying and hope for some positive variance. Robinson feels like he’s owed a large contract. Well, it’s time for him to start creating more separation and prove why.
Allen Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (+120 on DraftKings)
See above. For many of the same reasons, Robinson’s receptions prop is also worth a look. Playing both his receiving yards and receptions is a positive correlation strategy. I’m rolling both out as individual bets because of how much value we’re getting at +120 odds.
Also, there’s a chance that only one of these two bets cash. Something along the lines of four catches for 35 yards would crush my soul if I didn’t bet this as well.
Same Game Parlay (FanDuel)
Justin Fields Over 182.5 Passing Yards + Allen Robinson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards + Bears Moneyline + Bears Team Total Over 16.5 (+888)
If we go 2-for-2 with the Fields and Robinson yardage props, why not get wild and tack on the Bears Moneyline as live dogs.
Last week, Justin Fields played his best game of the season as he looked very decisive throwing the ball and made incredible plays with his legs. Ben Roethlisberger’s football time is nearing the end. He ranks near the bottom in average intended air yards and second-to-last in air yards completed. The only QB with a lower mark is Jared Goff.
In other words, this isn’t the same Big Ben as years past. Offensively, if the Bears are going to win this game, Fields will need to throw the ball effectively. Also, 20-23 points are what I have them projected for, so toppling over their 16.5 team total shouldn’t be too much to ask.
Let’s get wild. Bears by a million. Good luck, and let’s make some money.
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