Rams-Bengals Super Bowl: Betting the over or under?

We're getting closer to Super Bowl LVI between the Rams and Bengals, and the betting market has mostly settled on a number in regard to the spread and over/under.

Today we'll dig in to the total points, set at 48.5 points (-110) on all major sportsbooks — 48 is typically regarded as the standard for a total for NFL games, so oddsmakers aren't projecting much of an edge in either direction.

Betting Trends for Both Teams: Over/Unders

We highlighted betting trends for these teams last week, and if you put weight into season-long betting trends, the numbers do suggest betting the under.

The Rams' record against the over is 10-9-1, a record that drops to 7-9-1 as the favorite.

The Bengals are just 8-12 against overs this season, and when an underdog, the over is 3-8.

It's certainly worth considering that factor when deciding how to approach the total in this game.

How They Match Up

There's an argument to be made that these offenses are operating at very similar levels, with dynamic quarterbacks who can move the ball vertically with the help of an elite group of pass-catchers.

Both of these teams have been generating big plays all year, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see chunk plays again from both Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.

Both teams also have talented running backs, and these offenses can score points.

The biggest disparity I see favors the Rams on the defensive end. I think there's a legitimate chance Los Angeles can shut down the Cincinnati offense for much of the day.

I don't want to believe it as a fan, but this Rams defense is loaded with star players and could make life difficult for Burrow.

I'm not suggesting a Rams blowout at all. I think Cincinnati's defense, while worse on paper, has been causing turnovers at an extremely high rate that could continue against Stafford, who has tossed 17 interceptions this year.

If Stafford turns the ball over a few times, leaving points on the field, this should remain close.

Which Way to Bet the Total

I hate betting an under, especially in the Super Bowl. It hijacks the viewing experience. I think this game could be close to the total, but my gut and the numbers suggest it's going under 48.5 points.

Personally, I'd rather tease the under up six to 10 points or move the total down to around 40.5 in a same game parlay.

Lean: Under 48.5 points