San Francisco 49ers ceiling and floor for 2023

The San Francisco 49ers, who have made the NFC title game three of the past four seasons, are easily one of the league's best teams. From top to bottom, they have a terrific roster, and even with uncertainty at quarterback, San Francisco is elite.

Here's our best guess at the floor and ceiling for San Francisco: 

Ceiling: 14-3

San Francisco, which led the league in scoring defense (16.3 PPG), yards allowed (300.6) and turnover differential (minus-13), got even better with the addition in free agency of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, the former Eagle. 

On offense, playmakers abound, from RB Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle to wideouts Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The wild card is at quarterback. Brock Purdy, "Mr. Irrelevant" as the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, will probably start if healthy. In the 2022 NFC title game against the Eagles, he suffered a torn UCL in his throwing elbow.  

More good news for Niners fans: The team was sixth in the league in points per game (26.5) and has a top-tier head coach in Kyle Shanahan, who has implemented a dominant running game. 

If Purdy can build on his rookie performance and be an above-average starter, the 49ers will have no true weakness and be the odds-on favorites to win it all. Backing up Purdy are Trey Lance and Sam Darnold, both former first-round draft choices.

The 49ers have a chance to get off to a fast start with a schedule that only includes one playoff team (the Giants) in the first four weeks. (See full schedule analysis here.)

Floor: 9-8

The 49ers not only have one of the highest ceilings in the NFL this season. They also have one of the highest floors. 

If Purdy doesn't turn out to be the real deal, the 49ers will face challenges but still should finish over .500. He only has five starts under his belt. Lance, meanwhile, only has two. Darnold is the most experienced of the three but is probably the worst of the bunch. He has a 21-34 record in 55 starts and a poor completion percentage (59.6) in his five seasons in the league.

But the 49ers are built to win without elite quarterback play. Despite not having a top-tier QB, Shanahan has regular-season win totals of 13, 10, 6 and 13 over the past four seasons. If San Francisco doesn't get an unimaginable run of injuries, it should be good enough to finish with at least nine wins and make the playoffs, even in a worst-case scenario.