Scout's view: Does a trade for Vikings' Kirk Cousins make sense for QB-needy Jets?
Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.
I liked what I saw from QB Kirk Cousins when he was a rookie in Washington in 2012. The more I've watched him play since, however, the less there is to like. For one, Cousins — who has played for the Vikings since 2018 — can't be trusted to win a big game. He has the 11th-highest earnings in NFL history ($231,669,486) and one playoff win.
The Vikings are 0-2, and the New York Jets (1-1) sorely need a solid veteran QB with Aaron Rodgers out for an extended period. Pundits — including those at CBS Sports and Forbes, as well as Jets fan Mike Greenberg of ESPN— are pitching a Cousins-to-the Jets deal following Zach Wilson's dreadful three-interception game in a 30-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
So, I examined tape from these Cousins games to see if a deal would make sense from the Jets perspective:
- Sept. 11, 2022 against Green Bay
- Nov. 11, 2022 against Buffalo
- Jan. 8, 2023 against Chicago (Cousins played the first half.)
- Sept. 10, 2023 against Tampa Bay
- Sept. 14, 2023 against Philadelphia
Cousins looked like I remember him in Washington from 2012-17, when he earned a "B" game-film grade. He's inconsistent and has a tendency to make mistakes as the pressure ratchets up.
In 2022, he looked nearly flawless in the opener against Green Bay, but he had five disrupted passes and two interceptions in an overtime win against Buffalo. Then he looked good against Chicago in the season finale with Minnesota's playoff spot locked up.
Cousins is a rhythm passer. Against the Bears and Packers, he looked in control of the tempo. Against the Bills, he didn't, and consequently, he had five disrupted passes and the two picks.
This season, despite the second-best passer rating in the NFL (114.2), his arm doesn't look as strong as it has in the past. His playing speed looks a smidge slower, and his overall game doesn't quite look as sharp. This has resulted in one interception, two disrupted passes and three fumbles. Struggles with red-zone accuracy also showed up in my examination of the five games over the past two seasons.
If the Jets pulled the trigger on a deal for Cousins, here's what they'd be getting:
1. Proven experience in the pocket
While Cousins isn't a runner by any stretch, he has shown decent mobility and the ability to roll out, especially to his right. Cousins navigates the pocket well and demonstrates the poise to be able to stare down the barrel of the pass rush and still complete passes.
2. Efficient game manager
Cousins has completed 72.7% of his passes this season and 65.9% or above in every season since joining the Vikings in 2018. He sees the field well, has quick reflexes and excels at spreading the ball around to targets in the short-to-intermediate levels of the field on routes featuring break points inside or outside. This is where Cousins does most of his work.
3. Big-play capability
Cousins will occasionally launch one down the sidelines or hit a deep post pattern down the middle. It's something he didn't do a whole lot in the games I examined, but when he did, he showed uncanny deep-ball touch. Last season, according to Pro Football Focus, he was the ninth-best deep-ball thrower in the league. He finished third in deep-ball yardage (996) and seventh in deep-ball completion percentage (46%).
Bottom line
What I'm seeing on game film would support a trade of Cousins to the Jets, but he would not get New York to the Super Bowl. The price could be costly — probably a first-round pick — a high price to pay for what could be a one-year Band-Aid. Cousins's contract is up after the season, so there's no guarantee he'd be back in New York another season if Rodgers doesn't come back.
The frustration level with Wilson, however, may be rising. If this deal can save the season, I'd make it.
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