In a David v Goliath Sunday night NFL matchup we got the 6-7 Saints vs the 10-3 Bucs. In a pass happy NFL league, the Bucs are led by the GOAT Tom Brady, while the Saints counter with… Taysom Hill. Who? Taysom Hill? Clearly the Bucs and Brady are superior and deserve to be a big favorite.
However, betting is all about value and the point spread is the great equalizer. The Bucs are an obscenely high 11.5 point favorite in this game. I’ve written before on how much value there is wagering on big NFL dogs. Bettors flock to the favorite assuming big name Brady & co will crush the Saints. This flocking is especially high on a primetime game, and pushes up the line too high.
The Bucs likely deserve to be a 9.5-10 point fav in this matchup, but by getting the extra 1-2 points you cover VIG and got an edge. That’s why big NFL dogs consistently cover closer to 55% over time – by getting that extra 1-2 points, when the Saints lose 31-20, you win because you got 11.5 versus losing when the “right price” was 9.5-10.5 points.
You will still lose this bet almost 50% of the time. When the Bucs crush, you will look and feel foolish because “clearly” Brady was going to crush them. However, between the backdoor covers and the times the Saints keep it close or even pull off a win, this is a solid value bet.
Ignore your friends and the media and take the Saints +11.5 for value.
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