Super Bowl MVP: Focusing on our top five betting choices
Sure, you could just bet on the Super Bowl winner between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, but where's the fun in that? Knowing it's a near certainty that the Super Bowl MVP will come from the winning team, there's some potential value available in the Most Valuable Player market, should you wish to take it.
Below we've ranked our five favorite choices in order, based on a mix of who we think will win and the value we can get on their odds. All prices are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
1. Patrick Mahomes (+125)
For nearly two weeks now we've discussed why Kansas City is our preferred betting choice in this one, so naturally, their star quarterback sits atop our choices for Super Bowl MVP.
Traditionally, MVP goes to a QB more than anyone else, and Mahomes already has two under his belt for both of Kansas City's recent championships. The Chiefs are floating around +105 to win, so you get a better price on Mahomes to win MVP at +125 if you so please. There's not without flaws in that plan, though, position players can certainly take home the crown too, and that's where we start to find some value picks.
2. Christian McCaffrey (+450)
A San Francisco victory here seems quite certainly to mean that Christian McCaffrey was incredibly involved out of the backfield. The Niners' running back has a rushing yards total of 90.5, and his touchdown is heavily juiced at -225 or worse.
He's scored two touchdowns in both playoff games thus far, and if he finishes with 100+ yards and multiple scores on the ground, he would surely have a strong case for MVP honors. On paper, the best course of action for San Francisco would be to attack a Chiefs run defense that has ranked among the most generous in the NFL this season.
3. Deebo Samuel (+2000)
We continue looking at a few of San Francisco's skill-position players. That is thanks to a mixture of us not fully buying into Brock Purdy combined with the explosiveness these guys possess.
Deebo Samuel is a perfect example. Samuel finished with 89 yards in the NFC Championship Game dealing with an injury, and now healthier, he could have another big day after watching Zay Flowers go for 115 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship against this defense.
The kicker here that makes Samuel worth a value bet is his involvement in the run game. He broke off a 30+ yard run in the last Super Bowl San Francisco played in (against Kansas City), and if he makes a few big plays with his legs and scores on the ground to detract from Purdy's stat-line, there's a path here. It's a long shot, but if Samuel can combine for 150+ total yards of scrimmage with multiple touchdowns, one of which comes on the ground, there's a real chance that's an MVP-type of game.
4. Travis Kelce (+1200)
If it isn't Mahomes on Kansas City, the most logical next target has to be Chiefs TE Travis Kelce. Kelce is fresh off an 11-catch, 116-yard, 1-TD game, and he has been a force in the postseason. He has 17 touchdowns in his last 16 playoff games, going for 90+ yards in eight of his last 12.
Should Kelce dominate targets in the passing game and score multiple touchdowns, there's a chance he takes MVP consideration away from Mahomes. Again, a path here for Kelce would require nearly no one else from the Kansas City passing attack making much happen for their QB. In that event, Kelce is a viable choice. Giving MVP honors to Taylor Swift's boyfriend would certainly be a boom for NFL social media, though please try to not get lost in those conspiracy theories!
5. Brock Purdy (+225)
Lastly we can't forget Brock Purdy. We don't mean much disrespect to San Francisco's QB for ranking him here, we just prefer the better odds and potential payouts on a few of his extremely talented offensive teammates.
16 of the past 25 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, and considering the 49ers are the betting favorites to win, this would suggest Purdy is some incredible value at +225. We are reading between the lines a bit here. Despite being favored to win, you see that Purdy is not even the favorite to win this award, suggesting that sportsbooks too acknowledge how quickly voters may pass over what some perceive as a game manager in favor of the players who break off big plays.
A bet on Purdy is a simple one: You believe he limits mistakes and gets the ball to his talented trio of pass-catchers in Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The key here is passing touchdowns. If McCaffrey vultures 2-3 touchdowns in close, it's harder to make Purdy's case here. He needs to be tossing TDs to win this award.
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