Taking a longshot touchdown bet in Titans-Bills
It's been a tough day to gauge the Bills side of the betting board, with the continued uncertainty around the availability of Gabriel Davis.
Davis would be my preferred look for a long reception prop, and I would have had that written up hours ago. Reports suggest we finally have clarity: Davis is out tonight. That is a bummer, but there is still value to be had on the Bills end, as I find the Titans secondary to be a tremendous target.
Shoutout to Oddschecker for letting us find the best price for this long shot look.
.5u: Jake Kumerow TD (+850 Unibet/BetRivers)
In his career, Jake Kumerow has three touchdowns, so why target him tonight? My personal expectation, which isn't backed up by any concrete reporting, is that Kumerow will see a bump in usage as the next outside receiver on this roster.
While Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie will likely see more looks, they are better suited to split slot duties. Kumerow should see a role taking Davis' outside snaps, and in a high-scoring offense with a quarterback like Josh Allen, I can't ignore this +850 price.
This Titans secondary is one I've had circled to target for big plays when the timing is right, and their top corner Kristian Fulton is out tonight, leaving Tennessee with a rookie corner in Roger McCreary and Caleb Farley, who has played less than 80 career defensive snaps.
It's a unit that Allen should be able to pick apart, with or without Davis. I think Stefon Diggs is a fantastic look for a long play, yards and a score tonight. My only concern with him is that Tennessee just pours all their resources into stopping him.
Kumerow is 6'4" and likely to play more than his 14 snaps from last week. Last year, the Titans allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers, and allowed Sterling Shepard to break off a 65 yarder last week.
Taking a stab on some value tonight in the early window! For a straight play and another touchdown bet, be sure to check out my Eagles-Vikings preview. Good luck tonight!
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