'TNF' preview: Can Buffalo get back on track against fading Tampa Bay?
The Bills are a heavy favorite against the Buccaneers on Thursday night but will look to cover for the first time since Week 4, when they throttled Miami, 48-20.
At home in Week 6 against the Giants, Buffalo struggled but won as a 15-point favorite. In Week 7 at New England, it lost as a 7.5-point favorite. Will the Bills play with their food in Week 8 or feast instead? Here's what to watch for as Buffalo (4-3) prepares to host Tampa Bay (3-3).
When the Bills are on offense
Ball security: The Bucs are best at forcing turnovers, with 21% of opponents' drives ending with a turnover, the highest mark in the league. The Bills turn the ball over on 15.1% of their drives, the league's fifth-highest rate.
Quarterback Josh Allen already has seven interceptions, including one on the first play from scrimmage in Buffalo's 29-25 loss to New England in Week 7. The Bills carelessness with the football could make this game more competitive than it should be.
High-leverage situations: Buffalo likely won't have any trouble moving the ball between the 20s. The Bucs rank 27th against the pass and last in third-down defense, allowing conversions on 50% of opponents' attempts.
Meanwhile, Allen is sixth in passing yards (1,841) and one of three quarterbacks with a completion percentage over 70%. The Bills are also third in third-down conversion rate (48.3 percent).
The red zone will be a fascinating battle of strengths. Buffalo is second in red-zone scoring with 20 touchdowns in 28 attempts (71.4%). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has only allowed four touchdowns in 18 opportunities, a league-low 22.2% touchdown rate.
Dalton Kincaid: The Bills moved up to draft rookie tight end Kincaid 25th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He must take on a bigger role in Buffalo's attack with tight end Dawson Knox (wrist) out indefinitely.
Kincaid ranks second among rookie tight ends with 193 receiving yards and has the highest catch rate (92.6%) among all tight ends with at least 10 targets this season. (h/t StatHead)
James Cook: One of six running backs with at least 600 yards from scrimmage, Cook has excelled with a larger workload in his second season. He played 269 snaps in 16 games last season and already has 256 this season. Cook has 88 carries for 419 yards.
When the Buccaneers are on offense
QB Baker Mayfield vs. Bills pass rush: Mayfield is tied with Miami's Tua Tagovailoa for the second-lowest sack rate in the league (3.8%), but Buffalo ranks second in sacks with 25. Veteran edge- rusher Leonard Floyd leads the team with 6.5 sacks; six Bills already have at least two sacks, including defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who was limited in practice Monday with a toe injury.
LB Von Miller's availability is also a question after he only played six snaps against the Patriots in Week 7. Both players are worth keeping an eye on pregame, but Buffalo has enough depth to keep the pressure on Mayfield. Whether it's enough to bring him down is another story.
Bucs Pro Bowl-caliber wide receivers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are playing as well as any WR duo, combining for 63 receptions and 866 yards, with Evans accounting for all four of the twosome's touchdowns. ESPN Analytics, using tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats, ranks Godwin and Evans as two of the top-12 wideouts.
Buffalo ranks 10th against the pass but is thin in the secondary after losing starter Tre'Davious White (torn Achilles) for the season in Week 4, giving the Bucs a potential advantage. Plus, as longtime analyst Aaron Schatz noted on "X", the Bills defensive performance has dipped significantly over the past three weeks.
From Weeks 5-7, Buffalo's defense was 16.9% worse than a league-average unit after performing 26.1% better than league average during the first four weeks.
Running in place? Something must give when the Bucs horrid rush offense goes up against a porous Bills rush defense. Tampa Bay ranks 29th in rushing (77.8 yards per game) and 31st in yards per attempt (3.1 yards), but Buffalo is 23rd against the rush (128.3 yards per game) and 31st in yards per attempt (5.2 yards).
Despite their struggles, advanced stats suggest the Bills should fare better in Week 8. Per ESPN, Buffalo ranks sixth in run-stop win rate (33%) and Tampa is last in run-block win rate (63%). Rachaad White has a 39.8% success rate on his rushing attempts, third worst among running backs with at least 50 rush attempts.
Red-zone offense: The Bucs inability to score touchdowns in the red zone contributed to their loss to the Falcons in Week 7. Tampa Bay settled for two field goals in its two red-zone attempts and only has six red-zone touchdowns in 16 tries this season.
Its 37.5% touchdown rate ranks 28th in the league while the Bills are sixth in red-zone defense. Settling for field goals will be a recipe for Tampa's third consecutive loss.
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