The top safety on the market this offseason, Xavier McKinney is in line for a good payday. A reliable run defender and excellent coverage safety, McKinney played his first four seasons in New York and is hitting free agency for the first time in his career. Still just 24 years old, he has a lot of upside as a long-term starter.
McKinney’s strengths are in his range and coverage ability. He can play as a true full-field safety in single-high schemes or as a half-field defender is two-high looks. He’s versatile enough to come down into the box or split out and cover the slot, though his natural position is at free safety.
While McKinney was one of the best safeties in the NFL in 2023, that season was a bit of an outlier. McKinney has battled injuries and inconsistent play throughout his career, but it’s good to see him put it all together for a year. It gives hope that he can be this player moving forward, and teams are generally willing to buy into breakout years for highly regarded players (just look at LB Tremaine Edmunds last offseason).
McKinney reportedly is looking for a contract near the top of the market, which could put him in the $14-16 million APY range. New York seems hesitant to give him that much, especially on a multi-year deal. I’m not convinced teams will be lining up to pay him top-of-the-market money with the depth of this free agent safety class, but he’s still in line for a big payday. He could probably wrangle $14-15 million on a two-to-three-year deal.
Raiders
The Raiders enter the offseason needing to overhaul much of their defensive depth chart. Upgrades at all three levels are needed, most importantly at cornerback and along the defensive line. Safety is a rather unheralded need for them, but a critical one nonetheless. Tre’von Moehrig is penciled in at one of the starting spots, but the other is up for grabs. McKinney is the kind of signing that would give new HC Antonio Pierce confidence in his safeties and let the team focus their draft assets elsewhere.
Armed with plenty of cap space and the No. 11 pick in the draft, the Raiders are likely still a few years away from serious contention. Figuring out the quarterback position is the team’s top priority, either by drafting a high-level prospect or bringing in less expensive competition for incumbent starter Aidan O’Connell. Whatever they do, the defense will get most of the rest of their attention. A mix of free-agent signings and draft picks should be brought in to add talent and new life to the defense, and hopefully improve its play.
Moehrig spent most of his time last season at free safety, but he’s better in run defense than he is in coverage. Signing McKinney would allow him to play more in the box and closer to the line of scrimmage, utilizing his athleticism in a role better suited for him. It would give Las Vegas a very good duo at safety and significantly improve their pass defense.
Seahawks
Just this past week, the Seahawks released both of their starting safeties, Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs. Finding replacements for them is one of Seattle’s top offseason priorities. 2023 free agent signee Julian Love started much of last season and figures to man one of the spots. While a Day 2 draft pick could be spent on the position, McKinney could come in as a reliable producer and allow the Seahawks to play for value in the draft, rather than needing to fill a starting role.
Seattle is going through a transition period this offseason, as future Hall-of-Fame coach Pete Carroll is out and has been replaced by former Ravens DC Mike Macdonald. Macdonald’s scheme differs from the one Seattle ran for most of Carroll’s tenure, and McKinney would actually be a great fit. He’d be able to roam a bit as a free safety, playing into his strengths in coverage, with the versatility to come down into the box and cover tight ends or offer run support.
Seattle has high expectations this season, and to reach those lofty goals, they need to patch up the back end of their defense. McKinney would be a reliable, if expensive, option to bring in.
Packers
Despite employing some of the biggest names at the position, the Packers have struggled with poor safety play the last two seasons. After moving on from some players last season and struggling through a patchwork rotation, one of the Packers’ priorities should be to shore up their safety spots heading into 2024.
McKinney would cost a premium, but he’s the best safety available on the market and would lock down his spot for the duration of his contract. New Green Bay DC Jeff Haley runs a lot of press-man coverage that asks a lot of its safeties. Safeties in Haley’s scheme need to be able to lock down tight ends and slot receivers in man coverage as well as erasing half the field in deeper zones. McKinney is the only safety on the market you can trust to do that at a high level on a down-to-down basis.
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