The NFL Draft is almost here! All the buzz for months now has suggested that Minnesota Vikings are going to be trading up to select their quarterback of the future. But who will be that trade partner? And which quarterback is general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah targeting? One of the most plugged-in long-time NFL Draft experts of all time thinks he has it figured out.
Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN just released his latest mock draft today. It's two rounds long and includes multiple trades. In his two-round NFL mock draft he has the Vikings trading up with the Los Angeles Chargers at pick five and selecting J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan.
The move would require that the Vikings send both pick 11 and 23, along with their 2025 first round pick, which would then mean they wouldn't select again until round four, but the team would have their quarterback of the future. That would be perceived as way too expensive for some, but that's the cost of doing business when you want to acquire a quarterback in the first five picks of the NFL Draft. But will something like that really happen? And does it make sense to target McCarthy with pick five? All the major sports books around the world certainly believe so.
Why should we believe J.J. McCarthy is the trade up target for the Vikings?
According to multiple top tier sports books J.J. McCarthy has nearly 50% implied probability to be selected specifically by the Vikings. They're unsure which pick slot it actually happens in, but nearly 85% of McCarthy's implied draft selection probability lives between picks three and six according to multiple top sports books. Why such confidence?
Beyond the rumors and solid sourced journalism surrounding this likelihood, J.J. McCarthy is just a phenomenal prospect. People want to knock him for the lack of passing volume, but he was a wildly efficient quarterback for Michigan.
Through the end of the regular season last fall McCarthy was top five among all college football quarterbacks in several meaningful rate stats. QBR, passer rating, adjusted net yards per pass attempt, EPA per play, completion rate. You name it. McCarthy was likely near the top of the list when it came to efficiency.
When I asked him about his decision making and efficiency at the NFL Combine this is what he had to say:
Everything is trending towards the Vikings making a trade up. If they want to ensure they get ahead of every team who may also be looking to select J.J. McCarthy they may very well need to trade ahead of the New York Giants at pick six. A trade with the Chargers certainly makes a lot of sense.
Be looking for more Minnesota Vikings coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Be sure to follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest news!
And check out some J.J. McCarthy highlights in the video below if you want to get a preview of what he could bring to the Vikings!
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