Two MNF props for Vikings-Eagles: Look for Dallas Goedert to make a play
We're still waiting on some injury news out of Buffalo, which will guide our prop picks in the first Monday night game today. While we wait for clarity there, we do have two plays in the Vikings-Eagles game.
Dallas Goedert over 19.5 longest reception (-113 CZR)
Last season, Minnesota was an ideal secondary to target for chunk plays. They allowed the 11th-most passes of 20+ yards and were inside the top 10 of DADOT and opponent's yards per pass attempt. While they've aimed to fix that vulnerability through this year's draft, it remains to be seen how effective Andrew Booth and Lewis Cine will be, as both have been dealing with injuries.
Week 1 saw Green Bay get dominated, but they still were able to generate a handful of 20+ yard passing plays: two to receivers, one to a running back and one to a tight end.
In comes Eagles TE Dallas Goedert, who had two 20+ yard catches in Week 1 against Detroit. Goedert makes this big plays happen in a variety of ways. Sometimes he works down the seam and hauls in a deep pass, but this offense consistently draws up screens for Goedert to get out in space.
That variety makes Goedert seem matchup proof. He had 17 catches of 20+ yards last season, and with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith taking up attention on the outside, Goedert has the middle of the field to break off a big play.
This 19.5 number feels great for the starting TE in Philly who played all but six snaps last week. Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson are also elite tackles who should have better success against the Minnesota front than a pair of backup tackles in Green Bay had in Week 1.
.5u: Alexander Mattison touchdown (+475 DK)
The Eagles allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to running backs in 2021 and followed that up with three scores allowed to Lions RBs in Week 1.
Dalvin Cook is a great look to get in the end zone tonight, but I have no interest in betting him straight at -110. The natural pivot is to Alexander Mattison, who saw 8 carries in Week 1. Two were inside the 20, and he played about 25% of the snaps.
Don't get this twisted, Mattison is strictly a value play in an advantageous matchup. The Eagles defense had a serious tackling issue to start the year. If Cook gets a brief break or gets knocked out for a stretch due to injury, Mattison will get all of that work.
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