Two value bets for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year
The NFL futures market is alive and well, and one award that offers us some intriguing value is the winner of Offensive Player of the Year.
This award has become one designated for the top non-QB of late. Four of the past five winners have been a running back or wide receiver. It would take quite the statistical season for a quarterback to win this award moving forward. For example, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes won Offensive Player of the Year in 2018--the same year he won MVP thanks to 50 passing touchdowns.
We'll project a RB or WR winning this award in the 2022 season, and there are some players worth a bet.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds
This market is intriguing to break down. Because the odds on two of the notable sportsbooks, FanDuel and DraftKings, have very different odds. For example, Deebo Samuel is tied for the betting favorite at +1000 on DK, but can be bet at +1900 on FD. This illuminates how important line shopping is--there may be a chance to find better odds for a few players across the available sportsbooks.
Below are the 15 players with the highest odds to win OPOY, along with the best odds and sportsbook you can bet them.
- Jonathan Taylor (+1000 DK)
- Cooper Kupp (+1400 FD)
- Derrick Henry (+1600 FD)
- Deebo Samuel (+1900 FD)
- Justin Jefferson (+2000 DK)
- Nick Chubb (+2000 DK)
- Davante Adams (+2000 FD)
- Patrick Mahomes (+2500 FD)
- Josh Allen (+2500 FD)
- Christian McCaffrey (+2500 FD)
- Justin Herbert (+2500 FD)
- Lamar Jackson (+2500 DK)
- Kyler Murray (+3000 FD)
- Jalen Hurts (+3000 FD)
- Ja'Marr Chase (+3000 DK)
Favorite betting options to win OPOY
Cooper Kupp won this award last season after having a season consisting of 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, leading the league in all three categories. Derrick Henry brought home the honors in 2020 thanks to 2,027 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. On top of strong numbers, both players were also members of one of the NFL's top regular season teams.
With those two caveats in mind, it makes sense that Jonathan Taylor is the betting favorite. Taylor amassed 1,811 rushing yards last season on 5.5 yards per carry, scoring 18 touchdowns on the ground and 2 more through the air. Entering his third season, Taylor's workhorse role figures to remain in tact. And with the Indianapolis Colts as the betting favorite to win the AFC South, it's a solid wager. But there are other quality bets here, as well.
Justin Jefferson +2000
Justin Jefferson has been one of the top pass-catchers in his first two NFL seasons. He finished his rookie season with 88 receptions, 1,400 yards and 7 touchdowns and followed that up with a better sophomore campaign: 108 receptions, 1,616 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
Jefferson has become the top receiver in Minnesota and is one of the most talented offensive players in the league. The Vikings are a high-volume passing offense, Quarterback Kirk Cousins ranked in the top-ten in most passing attempts last season and Jefferson was on the receiving end of 167 targets, fourth-most in the NFL.
Volume is the key component when projecting this award. Jefferson is so productive that it is possible he could come close to breaking receiver records, such as former Lions' wideout Calvin Johnson's yards marker of 1,964. The 17th game will certainly help with increased production. The Rams' Cooper Kupp came close to that record. And if Jefferson does the same, it'll be hard to not give him OPOY.
While it is likely Kupp cannot duplicate his "triple crown" season, and other Vikings' weapons such as receiver Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook not taking away opportunities from Jefferson, a third consecutive big year feels imminent for #18.
At these odds, Jefferson is a bet with a good chance to net a decent return.
Christian McCaffrey +2500
In order to bet on Christian McCaffrey here, there needs to be belief that the Carolina Panthers can win some games. With promising pieces on defense and some weapons on offense, it is possible for the team to compete this season.
McCaffrey's health is his biggest question. When on the field his versatility yields top-tier production. But in order for him to come close to securing the award, he must come close to one NFL statistic:
2,510 total yards from scrimmage.
Chris Johnson currently holds the NFL single season record of most yards from scrimmage with 2,509 back in 2009. That season, Johnson did win Offensive Player of the Year, despite the Titans going 8-8 and missing the playoffs.
McCaffrey came close back in 2019, finishing with 2,392 total yards (third-highest in NFL history). He finished third in OPOY voting that year behind winner Michael Thomas (set an NFL receptions record), and MVP Lamar Jackson.
McCaffrey's usage will be very high but the disclaimer that he needs to stay healthy. McCaffrey claims that this is the healthiest he's ever felt, great news. It's possible CMC can rack up a massive percentage of the Panthers total offense and get back to the success he had in earlier in his career. At +2500, it's worth a look to place a bet.
LOOKING FOR THE BEST SPORTSBOOK PROMOTIONS AVAILABLE FOR YOU IN YOUR STATE? SIMPLY CLICK HERE
More must-reads: