Week 10 NFL underdog report: C.J. Stroud makes Houston proud
This week’s NFL schedule features an up-and-coming quarterback and the return of a two-time Pro Bowler. These games offer the greatest upset potential. (For the latest odds, go to oddschecker.)
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
After losing three of their first four games, the Cincinnati Bengals have won four straight matchups. The Texans also got off to a rocky start, losing three of their first five games, but with last week’s victory over Tampa Bay, they appear to have their franchise quarterback.
Houston’s C.J. Stroud had the best game of his young career against the Bucs, throwing for 470 yards with five touchdowns and a 147.8 quarterback rating, all tops among Week 9 QBs. While the running game sputtered, three Texans’ pass-catchers had 100-yard games, including rookie Tank Dell who had two touchdowns.
Dell, Noah Brown and tight end Dalton Schultz combined for 397 yards and could give the Bengals' celebrated wide receivers a run for their money. The Texans have the fourth-best passing numbers in the league, averaging 264.1 yards per game. Cincinnati’s’ Ja’Marr Chase has better numbers than any Texans receiver, but Houston’s secondary wideouts have performed better.
Defensively, Houston has a slight edge as well. The Texans give up 335 yards per game while the Bengals allow 364 yards per contest. The Bengals have an excellent pass rush and hope to force Houston’s rookie quarterback into bad throws, but Stroud has one interception all year with a clean sheet in his last five games.
Cincinnati may be the hottest team in football, but with a Thursday night matchup against the Ravens looming, the Texans could catch the Bengals sleeping this Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+1)
Cardinals quarterback Clayton Tune went 11-of-20 for 58 yards and two interceptions against the Browns’ top-ranked defense last week. Arizona running backs averaged less than one yard per carry on 16 attempts in a 27-0 loss. In other words, there’s nowhere to go but up.
Meanwhile, the Falcons struggled against a Vikings team led by former Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs. The QB went 20-of-30 with three total scores, beating Atlanta 31-28 at home. The Falcons have one road win all season. The Cardinals' lone victory came at home. Is that enough to score an upset? Probably not, but the return of Kyler Murray might be.
Arizona’s franchise QB is set to make his 2023 debut after missing the first nine games with a knee injury. While some expect the Cardinals to bring him along slowly, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing sounds ready to turn him loose.
“He’s healthy; he’s ready to go; and we will put him in position to be successful,” Petzing said, via Darren Urban on the team’s website. "Anytime he runs and gets tackled, no matter what the situation, from now until the end of time, there is going to be like, 'Get up. He's good?’ He's going to get tackled, that's a fact."
Meanwhile, backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke will make his second-straight start for the Falcons after taking over for Desmond Ridder in Week 8. Heinicke is a fine backup, but if Murray plays anywhere near his potential, the Cardinals have the edge and should have enough to get by the 4-5 Falcons.
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