Week 3 'TNF' touchdown prop: Looking down the line for value

This Niners-Giants game seems bound to be one-sided, especially with Saquon Barkley out for New York. The Giants offensive line is also dealing with injuries, and that's just not a good situation against this 49ers defense.

As such, I'd prefer we limit our touchdown exposure in this one, I don't want any New York player. There's only name I like here, and it's a running back, but not the one you think. This is a half-unit wager for me.

Elijah Mitchell (+260 FanDuel/BetMGM)

Let the record show: Christian McCaffrey is of course the preferred choice to score in this one. His price, however, is simply unbettable. Yes, he's scored in 11 straight games, but I will never recommend touching a TD prop that is lower than -140, and McCaffrey is set at -220 or worse on most books.

Instead, we turn to Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco's backup running back.

Before we dive too much into the 49ers, let's revisit the Giants. I definitely want a piece of this running game against New York. The Giants have allowed the eighth-highest yards per carry mark through two weeks, and they've already let up three running back touchdowns, tied for the fourth-highest total in the league.

That's a driving factor towards McCaffrey's price, and why I think there's a pivot to make here in Mitchell. On a short week, I could definitely see Mitchell being more involved.

Well, really, anything is going to be more involved than what we saw in Week 2, as McCaffrey played every single offensive snap on Sunday and Mitchell did not see the field. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, you'd think San Fran would consider lessening McCaffrey's workload, especially on just three full days of rest.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan admitted as much after their win over the Rams: 

"Yeah, we definitely got to get Elijah in there more and do better with our rotation than we did yesterday," Shanahan said. "That wasn't the plan going in. It just ended up that way. I got to make sure that doesn't happen."