Week 7 NFL underdog report: The Lions deserve more credit, the Eagles not so much
Sorry, oddsmakers, the Detroit Lions shouldn’t be underdogs, but the Philadelphia Eagles should be. (For the latest odds, go to OddsChecker.)
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
The Lions are 5-1 this season, like the 49ers, Chiefs, Dolphins and Eagles. So why aren’t they considered an elite team?
Armed with a top-10 defense, a top-three offense and the NFL’s fifth-leading passer, the Lions as underdogs to a Ravens team seems odd. Detroit held Tampa Bay without a touchdown last week, while Baltimore needed six field goals from Justin Tucker to beat Tennessee.
Through six games, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has six more touchdowns than his counterpart in Baltimore. As usual, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leads his team in rushing with 307 yards and four scores, but he’s also committed six turnovers.
Lions leading rusher David Montgomery will miss the game with injured ribs, but first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs should be ready to go after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Gibbs’ best game as a pro came against the Falcons in Week 3 when he had 80 yards on 17 carries.
If Detroit gets another performance like that from Gibbs, they’ll beat the Ravens on the road.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+2)
Does anyone else feel like the Browns already won their Super Bowl by defeating the 49ers last week? With a Week 5 bye, Cleveland had two weeks to prepare for San Francisco and would’ve lost the game if Niners kicker Jake Moody hadn’t missed a 41-yard field goal as time expired.
The Browns defense is among the stingiest in the NFL, but the team’s 1,599 offensive yards are sixth fewest in the league. The Colts offense has been much better. Even with Gardner Minshew’s three interceptions against the Jaguars, Indianapolis has the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Cleveland’s 864 passing yards are the fewest of any NFL team.
Colts running back Zach Moss trails only San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey with 466 rushing yards, and teammate Jonathan Taylor hasn’t seen more than eight carries since coming off the IR, but last week’s loss should get him more touches this week.
Cleveland deserves credit for beating an undefeated Niners team with a journeyman like P.J. Walker, but can he do it again? Walker is likely to get another start as quarterback Deshaun Watson recovers from a shoulder injury.
All things considered, the Colts have a quarterback this week, and that should be enough to beat the Browns.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
According to Reuben Frank of NBC Sports, the Eagles have played a league-high 15 defensive backs this season. Injuries have decimated Philadelphia’s secondary, and this week they’ll try to stop the league’s most prolific offense.
The Dolphins lead the league in passing yards (1,901), rushing yards (1,091), points (223) and touchdowns (30). Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s passer rating (114.1) is the NFL’s best, and teammate Tyreek Hill leads all receivers with six touchdowns and 814 yards.
If Philly can’t get pressure on Tagovailoa, Hill and fellow wideout Jaylen Waddle could have a field day. Keep in mind, the Eagles sacked Jets quarterback Zach Wilson five times last week and still lost the game.
Miami running back Raheem Mostert leads the league with nine touchdowns and had three scores against Carolina last week. He could be in for another big day if Eagles tackle Jalen Carter misses his second straight game with an ankle injury.
Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson left last week’s game with an ankle injury of his own, but he’s expected to play this week. Unfortunately, he may not be enough to prevent the Eagles from losing their second game in a row.
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