Anders Carlson had an 81.8% field goal accuracy and an 87.1% success rate on extra points in his rookie season. However, he struggled in the Green Bay Packers’ final five games, including a critical miss on a 41-yard field goal attempt against the No. 1-seeded San Francisco 49ers. His miss with five minutes left could have put the Packers ahead by seven points, and Green Bay’s season ended with a 24-21 loss at Santa Clara.
Carlson’s struggles were evident in critical moments. He missed a field goal against the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants, contributing to two-point losses in each game. In the Pittsburgh Steelers game, Carlson’s missed extra point factored into a four-point deficit. Additionally, Carlson had a 43% touchback percentage, below the league average. That’s particularly concerning, given that the Packers were PFF’s fifth-worst special teams unit in the league.
While Carlson’s struggles are concerning, the Packers should not hastily move on from him. Compared to Green Bay’s all-time leading scorer, Carlson’s rookie field goal percentage of 81.8% surpasses Mason Crosby‘s 79.5% rookie numbers. Notably, Crosby had a worse field goal percentage in his first six seasons than Carlson did in his own rookie year, and he also performed worse in 2017, 2018, and 2021. It’s worth noting that Crosby kicked most of his extra points from the 13-yard line. With the new extra point rule in place, Carlson kicks the extra points 13 yards farther than the original rule allowed.
“Every time he goes out there, I just pray,” Matt LaFleur said in an interview in the middle of the playoff game against San Francisco.
It’s fair to say that LaFleur must have some confidence in Carlson. Otherwise, he wouldn’t be kicking in a do-or-die game. Still, it’s wild that LaFleur said that in an interview during the game. But given Green Bay’s special teams recently, perhaps he earnestly prays every time Carlson goes out there.
Green Bay cannot afford to enter the next season with the same approach they had in 2023, especially at kicker. Carlson faced no competition for his job throughout camp or during the season. One could argue that the Packers wanted Carlson to have all the drills, which benefits any rookie. But competition fosters a stronger work ethic and attention to detail. The pressure of knowing someone is vying for your position pushes athletes to improve daily. Despite being a rookie, Carlson, 25, should be capable of handling such pressure.
Wil Lutz, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Greg Zuerlein, and Chase McLaughlin will become free agents in March. All have demonstrated consistency throughout the 2023 season, with field goal percentages above 90% and extra-point percentages exceeding 95%. The Broncos even traded for Lutz earlier in the year. Given the struggles in the kicking game, the Packers should strongly consider bringing in one of these proven kickers during free agency. Alternatively, they could explore undrafted free agents for potential competition.
If Carlson struggles in his second season, Green Bay can opt to develop him on the practice squad. The team can also sign a more experienced kicker to handle gameday duties. That arrangement would benefit the Packers because they’d have a seasoned player on the roster. It also allows Carlson the necessary time and space to develop. This approach guards against undermining his confidence while fostering a more reliable kicking situation for the team.
The Packers should exercise patience with Carlson following the 2023 season. As a rookie, he requires time and support for development. However, it’s crucial to emphasize that if the Packers don’t make substantial improvements, Carlson’s future with the team could be in jeopardy. Rookies often face a learning curve, but the organization must set performance expectations.
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