It is possibly the toughest call on all Bears free agents.
The people at Pro Football Focus would say otherwise, but the call on bringing back defensive tackle Justin Jones can depend on several factors. PFF graded all the Bears defensive tackles in 2022 near the league's bottom and this year Jones was 107th out of 130 interior line defenders, the worst ranking of all Bears tackles including rookies Zacch Pickens (83rd) and Gervon Dexter (101st).
Jones plays a crucial position on the defensive line, the three technique. He plays the weakside of the field between the guard and tackle and needs to be in the gap, attacking upfield. Yet, it needs to be done in concert with the rest of the front to help preserve gap integrity so ball carriers can't take advantage of an opening in the line.
In two seasons playing this position for a four-man base front with single-gap emphasis, Jones has definitely improved. The numbers say it, even if PFF's assessment doesn't say so.
He had a career-high 4 1/2 sacks in 2023 after making three in 2022. Jones had 17 quarterback hits after just seven last season and a career-high 22 pressures, 12 more than his previous high and 13 more than last year. He knocked down quarterbacks 12 times and had never in his career done it more than three times.
Jones didn't make as many tackles for loss this season but it was close, and the difference between 12 last year and 10 this year was more than made up for by the fact the defense had other players capable of making plays up front in 2023 who took away some chances from Jones.
The other defensive players made 55 tackles for loss last year and 62 in 2023. It helps having T.J. Edwards and especially nose tackle Andrew Billings.
The Bears defense gave up 17 points or less in five of their last six and 20 in the game when they were over 17, and Jones was a key part of this.
Bears coach Matt Eberflus at season's end put Jones' name right there with key players he called vital in the improvement the defense made to 12th in the league.
"There's some dynamic players in that free agency class that Ryan (Poles) did an awesome job with," Eberflus said. "You talk about 'Maine (Edmunds) and T.J. (Edwards) and Justin Jones and D-Walk (DeMarcus Walker) and the trades, of course, with (Montez) Sweat and DJ (Moore), those are dynamic players. And so we're so excited about that future of bringing those guys together, but that also took time to be able to do that."
All of this said, Jones' return would seem to hinge more on the Bears finding a better replacement in free agency who wouldn't take more time to fit into the scheme and can play at a higher level than Jones.
Doing this in the draft is a very difficult assignment. Three techniques who play immediately at the pro level in way like the Bears require do not fall from the sky.
The top player of this ilk in this draft is Jer'Zhan Newton from a few hours down Route 57 at University of Illinois. This makes sense because he was recruited by the Lovie Smith regime, and the Bears play the same scheme now that they played when Smith was Bears head coach.
It could be possible to do it in free agency this year because the Bears have the cash, with $34 million in effective cap space and likely somewhere close to $48 million with possible cap space-clearing moves to come.
There are possible top defensive tackles in free agency, as well. Kansas City's Chris Jones, Baltimore's Justin Madubuike, Miami's Christian Wilkins and Seattle's Leonard Williams are among them but some could ge tagged.
Jones was not dominant, as he is still learning the position. A player like Madubuike comes from a different type of scheme and played end in a 3-4 so they'd need to gauge how he could convert to a single-gap front. Jones is the best defensive tackle in free agency and maybe the league, but will be 30 next season.
Another factor they need to take into account is the possible growth of Pickens and Dexter. It's a reach to expect Dexter to step up in Year 2 and take that starting spot. He had all of his 2 1/2 sacks in his final five games, as well as nine quarterback hits in his last eight games after getting three in the first eight. However, Dexter didn't make a single tackle for loss all season. Pickens made only one TFL and half a sack.
They can't depend on the youngsters yet. They'll need a veteran again playing that position to ensure continued interior pressure at least at the level they had late last year, and preferably even higher.
It's going to be a tough call on Jones, and the availability of those top defensive tackles in free agency could make all the difference whether he's back.
Bears UFA Projections
DT Justin Jones
Measurements: 6-foot-3, 309 pounds
Age: 27
2023 Cap Cost: $7.4 million
Years with Bears: 2
Years in the NFL: 6
BearDigest 2024 UFA Projection: Leaving
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