Why the Jets won the Aaron Rodgers trade

But for the Jets, this was a deal they simply had to make. Rodgers made it clear earlier in the offseason that he wanted to play for the franchise. After Zach Wilson failed to launch, New York couldn't afford to run it back with him as the 2023 starter at quarterback.

The 2024 pick runs the risk of haunting the Jets should they struggle and Rodgers plays over two-thirds of the season. But New York will know well before Rodgers hits that 65% threshold if that pick appears likely to land in the top 10. 

In a scenario in which the team combusts, the Jets could sit Rodgers and keep their first-round pick. Rodgers is more likely to keep the team in the playoff conversation until the end of the regular season, which could be crushing for the team if it comes up short. In that case, the 2024 first-round pick headed toward Green Bay would be in the high teens.

The deal looks even better for the Jets in the context of what the Broncos gave up to acquire QB Russell Wilson last offseason. In that trade, Denver got Wilson and pick No. 116 in the 2022 NFL Draft but sent two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, tight end Noah Fant, defensive end Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock to Seattle.

In a stacked AFC, acquiring Rodgers won't make New York the favorite to reach the Super Bowl. (Per Oddschecker, that's still the Chiefs.) With the Bills and Dolphins in their division, the Jets might not even be the team to beat in the AFC East.

But the trade gives New York a chance, something the organization hasn't had for far too long. There's certainly a chance the deal turns sour, but for now, the Jets and their fans should be celebrating.