Cases for, against NFL wild-card teams advancing to Super Bowl

NFC: Vikings (10-6)

Case for: QB Kirk Cousins justified his monster contract with the highest passer rating (107.6; league average 90.4) and best TD pass-to-interception ratio (26 to 6) of his career. Likewise, running back Dalvin Cook put it all together in 2019 (1,135 yards rushing, 13 TDs), becoming a cornerstone of a top-10 scoring offense. If anything, a deep Vikings playoff run might help make Danielle Hunter a household name. The pass rushing star (14.5 sacks) helped make the defense fifth in points allowed. In New Orleans, he'll need to get after Drew Brees, who was sacked only 12 times in the 11 games he played this season.

Case against: One reason fans might not have noticed Cousins' bounce-back year is the Vikings were bested twice in prime time down the stretch, by the Seahawks and Packers. Despite protestations that he feels as good as he has in a while, WR Adam Thielen (418 yards receiving) hasn’t been the same since he suffered a hamstring injury early this season. It took a miracle for Minnesota to beat New Orleans in the playoffs last season, and that was at home. Tough to count on those all the time. Minnesota has an impressive pass rush but major weaknesses in the secondary if those rushers fail to get home.

Saints (13-3)

Case for: New Orleans is pound-for-pound the best team playing on Wild Card Weekend. That’s probably not much consolation for having to play the extra game, but at least the Saints open against the Vikings at the Superdome, where they enjoy a better home-field advantage than most. The offense only got stronger as season went on. If their road to the Super Bowl requires two road wins, good for the Saints, who are 7-1 away from New Orleans in 2019. The team survived season-ending injuries to defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and defensive end Marcus Davenport to win their past three games.

Case against: The Saints lost a shootout to the 49ers less than a month ago, and that was in the Superdome. The loss of Rankins and Davenport hasn’t been exposed yet, but that doesn’t mean a high-powered offense in the playoffs isn’t waiting to do it. New Orleans was the sixth-most penalized team in the league this season. Knowing their recent postseason woes, the last thing the Saints want is bad karma with refs.

Seahawks (11-5)

Case for: QB Russell Wilson played out of his mind most of this season. He hasn't kept up the torrid pace recently, but he developed a terrific rapport with rookie receiver D.K. Metcalf (900 yards receiving, 7 TDs). RB Marshawn Lynch couldn’t energize the team enough in Week 17 against the 49ers, but he'll quickly reacquaint himself with the offense for the running back-depleted team. Seattle, which opens the playoffs in Philly, already has beaten the Eagles and 49ers on the road this season. Seattle used to have one of the best home records in the league, but this season the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road and 4-4 at home.

Case against: As good as Wilson’s first half of the season was, he’s come back to Earth over the past month, and the Seahawks have lost three of their past four. The Week 17 loss to San Francisco in Seattle was maddening enough to throw a pall over their week of preparation for the Eagles. They may have been road warriors in the regular season, but the Seahawks are 3-12 all time away from Seattle in the playoffs. 

Eagles (9-7)

Case for: They won four straight to clinch the division, and getting hot around this time is something the Eagles are plenty familiar with. QB Carson Wentz is putting it together at the right time after seeming lost for stretches early in the second half of the season. If the Eagles can get past the Seahawks at home and the Saints lose, Philadelphia will travel to Green Bay, where it has already won this season.

Case against: The Eagles' late-season surge is commendable, but the team is banged up more than most. Many fans can’t identify who is playing receiver for them. To make matters worse, they lost top offensive lineman Brandon Brooks in Week 17 for the postseason. Wentz had his worst game of the season against Seattle in a 17-9 loss in November (33-for-45, 256 yards, 2 picks), and knowing his best lineman is out might quash some of the confidence he has built recently. The defense has practically been allergic to forcing turnovers (only 20 for season; Pittsburgh led the league with 38). Philly will need turnovers in abundance to pull off playoff upsets on the road.

Bills (10-6)

Case for: No playoff team is better prepared to win a defensive showdown. Buffalo has made griding out wins its stock-in-trade in 2019. The Bills' third-ranked pass defense in DVOA halted several top offenses in 2019, and their strong pass rush could spell trouble for Houston's Deshaun Watson, the sixth-most sacked quarterback this season, in the wild-card round. Offensively, no one will confuse the Josh Allen-led Bills with the Ravens, but the second-year QB has improved. No moment seems too big for him. 

Case against: Buffalo made good teams sweat, but it seldom closed the deal against them. The Bills lost to the Patriots twice by one score, and held the Ravens to one of their lowest point totals of the season in a 24-17 loss. The Week 5 win over the Titans was the lone victory over a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. The Bills could very well escape the wild-card round with their first postseason win since 1995. But this up-and-coming team still seems like a step back from the top competition. 

Texans (10-6)

Case for: The Deshaun Watson-Deandre Hopkins-Carlos Hyde nucleus on offense rivals any threesome in the league. Houston, which plays host to Buffalo on Saturday,  was blown out by Baltimore, 41-7, but beat heavyweights New England and Kansas City, proof it belongs with the conference big boys. A banged-up Buffalo secondary will make it difficult for the Bills to focus on Hopkins (1,165 yards receiving, 11 TDs) as well as Kenny Stills and Will Fuller. Houston is also strong against the run, which suits it well against run-heavy Buffalo. Uh-oh: J.J. Watt could return from injury.

Case against: Deeply inconsistent, Houston never had more than a two-game win streak in 2019, That's certainly troubling because it will need three in a row to make it to the Super Bowl. The Texans were ravaged by the Ravens, whom they'll face in Baltimore if everything is chalk in the AFC. The offensive line has improved throughout the season, necessitating fewer times Watson has had to run for his life, but it’s still not a strength.

Patriots (12-4)

Case for: In short, it’s the Patriots. Granted, for all their Super Bowl appearances under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, they’ve never done it emerging from the wild-card round, but they haven’t even had to try since 2009. The Week 17 loss to Miami in Foxborough was humiliating, so they should be fired up against Tennessee and former Patriot Mike Vrabel and his assortment of New England castoffs. With the extensive hardware to prove their mettle, it’s impossible to count out New England no matter how poorly it has played in the past month.

Case against: The offense has clearly taken several steps back since the first half of the season. After scoring more than 30 points in six of their first eight games, the Patriots only did it once in the second half of the season, against the lowly Bengals no less. After Julian Edelman (100 receptions, 1,117 yards, 6 TDs), there’s not much to worry about in the receiving corps. The Boogeyman defense has remained solid, though it was bested by the three other AFC division winners down the stretch, and absolutely torn apart by Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. 

Titans (9-7)

Case for: If Ryan Tannehill had started the entire season, he might have put up numbers worthy of an MVP. He had the highest passer rating (117.5) of any QB with more than 200 attempts this season. After steadily improving over his first three years, Derrick Henry became a premiere back in 2019, leading the NFL in carries (303), rushing yards (1,540) and rushing touchdowns (16). This made the Titans' offense lethal in play action, with which Tannehill posted the highest yards per attempt and completion percentage in the league. Tennessee fared better on the road this season (5-3) than at home (4-4), a quality that should suit them given their postseason path.

Case against: Aside from a Week 10 win over the Chiefs at home, the Titans' resumé is fairly thin. Tennessee’s only other victory over a team with a winning record came against a Texans squad that had nothing to play for in Week 17. Injuries have been a problem in the secondary, which has been exploited by big-name quarterbacks. Cringe when you watch the Titans' kicking game: Tennessee is the first team since the strike season of 1987 to miss more field goals (10) than it made (8).