Chiefs deserve more credit for overcoming shaky offseason to reach AFC title game

Gaining Super Bowl access as a fringe contender has been more difficult in this era’s AFC than it has in either conference throughout NFL history.

The AFC in the 1970s and NFC in the ‘80s and ‘90s may have featured better teams, but the long odds facing the AFC franchises that did not employ certain quarterbacks during almost the entire 21st century are unparalleled. It took a catastrophic misplay to send an AFC team not quarterbacked by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger to a Super Bowl in the past 16 years. This is one of the most astounding patterns in the history of professional sports.

With Manning retired and Roethlisberger's team reeling, Brady represents the old guard's last stand. The Chiefs have an excellent chance to close this chapter.

NFL media have appropriately acknowledged Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance. He will likely be a wide-margin MVP and is the obvious difference between recent Chiefs teams that faltered in January and the one that has triggered the Patriots' ridiculous "everyone doubts us" mantra and has their fans in savor-every-moment mode.

However, the degree of difficulty Kansas City’s second-year superstar navigated to get here has not been sufficiently appreciated. 

Personnel decisions from the John Dorsey regime elevated the Chiefs to this position, but they are hosting the AFC championship game despite a bad 2018 offseason. Mahomes’ brilliance has compensated for recent roster mismanagement. Brett Veach’s initial moves as general manager have hindered the quarterback he helped bring to western Missouri.

If Mahomes can guide Kansas City past New England, it would represent as big an NFL shakeup since the Patriots’ Super Bowl XXXVI upset over the Rams. However, the Chiefs made some interesting choices en route. 

Its outing against Indianapolis aside, Kansas City’s defense (No. 31 in yards allowed, 26th in DVOA, 24th in points) would not be as unreliable had the front office, instead of authorizing a ludicrous-in-the-moment contract to a No. 2 wide receiver, allocated resources more responsibly. 

The $16 million-per-year/$30M guaranteed Sammy Watkins deal represents one of the bigger misfires in modern free agency. The Chiefs giving top-five (at the time) receiver money to a wideout few would rank in the top 25 at this position eliminated cash they could have used to bolster their defense or funnel to multiple areas. 

Reid and Dorsey devoted minimal resources to the Chiefs’ WR2 position, likely because of its place as the No. 4 option in this offense. Veach swinging big for an injury-prone receiver coming off an underwhelming contract year hurt the Chiefs’ ability to bolster their defense in 2018 and will in 2019 as well.

Watkins caught 40 passes for 519 yards and three of Mahomes’ 50 touchdown throws. But this would have been a bad contract had Watkins approached 1,000 yards. He plays a superfluous role that could have been adequately filled for half the price. 

Kansas City's receiver room will soon feature unprecedented money devoted to its starters, with Tyreek Hill’s continued rise putting him in position — partially thanks to his sidekick's exorbitant contract — to surpass Odell Beckham Jr.’s wideout-record deal as soon as this year.

The 2017 Chiefs deployed a poor run defense. Anthony Hitchens proved skilled in this area last season. The linebacker's $9M salary was not as out of step as Watkins’ numbers were, but the $21.3M guarantee made this an eye-opening contract. Among pure linebackers, only Luke Kuechly's deal includes more guaranteed money. The results so far have made the Hitchens pact worse that it initially did.

Pro Football Focus’ second-lowest-graded off-ball linebacker, Hitchens has scuffled defending the run for the No. 27 run defense. PFF viewed Hitchens’ ability to execute on run plays as considerably worse than almost every other NFL starting linebacker. With Hitchens not a realistic cut candidate until 2021, the Chiefs will need to see a much better 2019 to make this a remotely defensible signing.

The Mahomes trade was easily worth sacrificing a 2018 first-round pick, but the Chiefs have thrived without much help from Veach’s first draft class. It is too early to rule out reliable cogs emerging from this group, though. Travis Kelce, Dee Ford and Steven Nelson needed time to assimilate.

Save for Damien Williams (only relevant because of Kareem Hunt’s exit, another potential season-defining problem Mahomes helped the Chiefs solve), Kansas City's 2018 additions have contributed little. 

Selling low on Marcus Peters looks better now than it did in the moment, and Veach may deserve credit for it (as he does for acquiring Kendall Fuller in the Alex Smith deal). The upcoming extensions for Hill and Chris Jones, and perhaps Ford, leave the Chiefs ($35.9M in projected cap space) in need of cheap-labor help come April. The extra second-round pick from the Peters trade will help, but spending almost all of the Smith savings on an auxiliary wide receiver rather than allocating more money toward the secondary hurt the 2018 Chiefs.

Mahomes’ stunning NFL entrance allowed them to overcome almost all of this. 

Given near-weekly responsibilities to win shootouts because of this defense, Mahomes encountered obstacles Brady did not. The AFC East schedule makes New England's annual bye route easier, and this year’s edition became the first 11-win AFCer to skip the wild-card round since 2002. The Chiefs failing to win 12 games may have sunk them. 

Mahomes' rescuing efforts against the Broncos and Ravens moved this game away from Foxborough, where the Bill Belichick-era Patriots are 20-3 in the playoffs. The 2018 Pats also had the No. 2 DVOA defense at home compared to, oddly, the No. 31 mark on the road, where they went 3-5. New England is 3-4 in white jerseys in January.

This creates the best Chiefs Super Bowl opportunity in more than 20 years. But Veach’s first offseason casts some doubt about the future. That's because the math complicates when Mahomes becomes extension-eligible in 2020, when the cap will likely exceed $200M.

The post-Patriots AFC landscape will feature Dorsey and fellow ex-Chiefs front office bastion Chris Ballard — both Executive of the Year candidates — guiding resurgences, in addition to other emerging nuclei. Veach has a head start, but the Colts and Browns may be future impediments (with more cap space) to a Chiefs dynasty.

This said, the Chiefs have their centerpiece — a possible generational talent. As Manning and Brady showed, that can overcome deficiencies. Mahomes doing that and posting historic numbers changed the Chiefs' trajectory. 

After Sunday, the Chiefs could be the AFC’s measuring stick. Given their tortured history, that would be a monumental distinction.

But Veach still must show more this coming offseason if he is to build a long-term contender around his soon-to-be-wealthy phenom.