
The Atlanta Falcons lost their sixth game in seven weeks as they fell 27-24 to the New York Jets on Sunday. Atlanta now falls to 4-8 on the season, with five games left to play. After the loss, ESPN Research revealed that the Falcons are 1-6 this season in games in which they are outright favorites, which is the data equivalent of saying, bluntly, the Falcons suck in games they’re “supposed” to win.
The #Falcons are 1-6 outright as favorites this season, per ESPN Research.
— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) November 30, 2025
The Falcons have had plenty of those games so far this season. After a dominant 22-6 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2, the Falcons came out and put up a goose egg against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. Atlanta outgained Carolina 332 to 231 in that game, held them to 3-for-11 (27%) on third down and held quarterback Bryce Young to just 121 passing yards and zero passing touchdowns. They lost the game by 30 points.
In Week 8, the Falcons hosted the 1-6 Miami Dolphins and were two weeks removed from a 24-14 victory over the 4-2 Buffalo Bills. Miami had surrendered 100 or more rushing yards in every game of the season thus far, including two games with 190 rushing yards or more, and had just watched rookie running back Quinshon Judkins hang a hat trick on them the week before.
But, against Atlanta, the script flipped. The Dolphins held the Falcons to just 45 rushing yards, bottling up Bijan Robinson to just 25 yards on the ground on 2.8 yards per carry, and cruised to a 34-10 route in Atlanta’s own stadium.
In Week 12, the Falcons found yet another way to lose, once again as the favorites, as they fell 27-24 to the New York Jets. They dominated the game both offensively and defensively. The Falcons outgained the Jets 401 to 282, had nine more first downs, and went a perfect three for free in the red zone.
Defensively, they had two sacks, three passes defended, six quarterback hits and seven tackles for losses. But they had two special teams blunders; one was a muffed punt that set up a Jets touchdown from the two-yard line, and another was an 83-yard kick return to set New York up with great field position.
“We played awful yesterday on special teams,” Head coach Raheem Morris said on Monday following the loss. “I don’t know how to say it any other way.”
Despite entering the season with real expectations, a rebuilt defense, a quarterback with a cannon of an arm and a schedule with winnable matchups (at least on paper), the Falcons keep stumbling with games they’re positioned to control.
Whether it’s offensive inconsistency, defensive lapses, or special teams disasters, Atlanta has developed a frustrating habit of turning manageable situations into losses. And now with the season nearly over, with just five games left to play, ESPN Research’s stat isn’t just brutal. It’s the perfect, almost laughable, snapshot of how bad this season has gone for the Atlanta Falcons.
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