Fantasy Football: AFC West TD Projections

In a division where high-scoring games are expected to be the norm, determining where the touchdowns will go is an advantage. Here are the AFC West TD Projections.

Leaving no stone unturned in search of fantays success. That includes taking a TD projection trip around the league. After starting in the East, we have gone North – South across the AFC and are now ending in the West. As with all of those divisions, I am attempting to predict each team’s TD totals for the 2022 season, right down to individual players. So here are my AFC West TD Projections for 2022.

Denver Broncos

Total TD Projection: 50

Passing: 35

Rushing: 15

With Russell Wilson becoming a Bronco this offseason, I found it fruitless to try and compare last year’s Denver offense to this season’s. After all, such a drastic upgrade at QB would likely lead to a much more efficient offense, especially in the TD department. Using Wilson’s career TD rate of 6.2%, I project that he will produce 35 passing touchdowns. Furthermore, I predict that Wilson will recapture some running in 3 scores on the ground, a number he has only hit twice over the previous seven seasons.

My projection for Denver’s 2022 scrimmage TD leader may surprise some. In spite of the presence of several talented (and younger) players across the roster, I have Melvin Gordon leading the team with 9 scrimmage touchdowns. Yes, my projection has Gordon with more scores than even Javonte Williams, who is expected to be the team’s lead RB. Every single season since his rookie year, Gordon has scored at least 9 touchdowns. Some of those instances include injured campaigns and split workloads for Gordon, so I don’t expect him to miss the mark now. If the goal-line duties are split (much like last season), then I expect Gordon will produce more touchdowns than Williams.

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However, one area where I project Williams to outscore Gordon is in the passing game. Currently, I have Willaims with 3 receiving touchdowns and Gordon with 2. Already as a rookie, Williams was trusted often on 3rd downs, and I don’t expect that to change. If Williams completely takes over the pass-catching role, I could see him scoring as many as 5 times through the air. If Williams could do that, and hit double-digit total touchdowns then he will likely outproduce Gordon in end zone trips.

To place everything in perspective, I have four Broncos players projected between 7 and 9 scrimmage touchdowns. I predict Gordon will lead the way with 9 scores, split 7 on the ground and 2 through the air. Next, I have the other RB Williams and WR Courtland Sutton tied with 8 total touchdowns. But right behind them is Jerry Jeudy with 7. The Jeudy-Sutton debate has raged on all offseason, but with Wilson now at QB, both could easily succeed. For my part, I would argue on Sutton’s side simply because he has 4 times as many career touchdowns (12) as Jeudy (3) but in only double the games played (50 to 26). Finally, the fifth Denver TD contributor is starting TE Albert Okwuegbunam, with 5 receiving touchdowns. After that, no other Broncos player has more than 3 touchdowns in my projections.

Kansas City Chiefs

Total TD Projection: 56

Passing: 41

Rushing: 15

During the 2021 season, the Chiefs scored 53 offensive touchdowns. According to my 2022 TD projections, they will actually increase that number to 56 total scores on offense. In my prediction, that would be enough to lead the entire NFL in 2022. Of course, such an impressive team football feat has to start at the QB spot. Even though Patrick Mahomes lost his top WR, I still expect his efficiency to maintain. As I have mentioned before, I lean heavily into quarterbacks’ career TD rates to project offenses going forward. And Mahomes’ career 6.4% TD rate is about as good as they come in the current NFL. Therefore, I predict that he will be the only QB in 2022 to eclipse 40 passing touchdowns.

Perhaps many will be surprised to see that I expect Kansas City to lead the league in offensive touchdowns. However, I assume none will be shocked that I project Travis Kelce to lead the Chiefs in scrimmage touchdowns. In fact, I predict that Kelce will tie for the TE TD lead (alongside a certain AFC North tight end) with 10 receiving scores. Strangely, if my prediction is true, this would mark the first time since 2017 that Kelce has actually led the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns. Again, the presence of a certain wide receiver has kept Kelce from that title. That departure gives Kelce this opportunity that I expect him to seize.

However, with several subtractions from last year’s receiving corps, it was only natural that Kansas City would add to their pass-catching room. Enter free-agent acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster and 2nd round draft pick Skyy Moore. I project this WR duo will contribute a combined 14 catches on Mahomes’ 41 passing touchdowns. My current split is Smith-Schuster with 8 receiving scores, which would place him second on the team in scrimmage touchdowns. Not far behind is the rookie Moore with 6 end zone trips. Between the two newcomers, I am giving Smith-Schuster the edge because he has a history of TD production in the NFL. Imagine what he could accomplish with this massive QB upgrade.

And since Mahomes is such a great deep passer, let’s take the time to compare the two speedsters on the team. Likely, some combination of Mecole Hardman or Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be tasked with taking the top off of the defense on most plays. Those long touchdowns will be valuable not only for the yards but also for the opportunity to find the end zone. The projections are really close with both Hardman and Valdes-Scantling expected to produce 4 touchdowns. I don’t predict either will receive many red zone targets, so the deep plays might be their best opportunities to score.

Finally, let’s not forget the running game. My projections have the Chiefs with 15 rushing touchdowns, one less than last year. During this offseason, Kansas City acquired Ronald Jones to occupy the backfield alongside Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I expect that this new duo is capable of producing double-digit scores on the ground, but the split may be truly 50/50. Currently, I predict both will score 5 rushing touchdowns, but I believe the incumbent has a slight edge in the passing game. As part of the team’s 41 passing scores, I project the running backs will account for 5 of those. Currently, the split is 2 receiving touchdowns for Edwards-Helaire and 1 for Ronald Jones, with 2 going to whoever ends up being the 3rd RB (likely Jerick McKinnon).

Las Vegas Raiders

Total TD Projection: 45

Passing: 30

Rushing: 15

While Las Vegas going through a coaching change, this is nothing new for Derek Carr. As 2022 begins, he prepares to play for his 6th head coach since being drafted by the Raiders. So instead of focusing on coaching tendencies, I simply used Carr’s career average numbers as the baseline for these projections. Specifically, his career average attempts per game extrapolated over 17 games, which puts Las Vegas slightly below 600 passes. And while Carr’s career TD rate is only 4.3%, I raised him to 5.0% considering that the Raiders added Davante Adams, arguably the best WR in the NFL. Still, to date, Carr has hit 30 touchdown passes only once during his 8-year career. So while I predict that he will hit that plateau, I don’t necessarily expect a career year for Carr in that regard.

As a result of Carr’s TD ceiling, my projections have Adams dropping off of his usual league-leading level. Only once in the previous six seasons has Adams failed to hit the double-digit TD mark. And that was a 12-game 2019 season for Adams, where the Packers run game took over near the end zone. And ultimately, that is a similar situation that causes some hesitation for Adams in Vegas. I predict he will fall just short of double-digits with 9 receiving touchdowns, the same amount as Josh Jacobs rushing scores. And in terms of scrimmage touchdowns, I actually have Jacobs leading the Raiders, with 10 total. Even though Jacobs has let to find the end zone through the air during his NFL career, the amount of receiving yards he has accumulated indicates that there is a strong possibility of TD regression in the positive direction.

Speaking of TD regression, Darren Waller is quite a curious case. In 2019, he produced only 3 touchdowns alongside his 1,100+yard season. The following year, with about 50 extra receiving yards, Waller swung all the way up to 9 touchdowns. Based on the NFL average of 155 yards per scrimmage TD, Waller had lower than expected TD production in 2019, yet higher than average in 2020. Returning to career average, my current projection has Waller with 5 receiving scores. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow comes in with an identical 5 receiving scores. I could see either pass-catcher raiser to 6 or beyond, but the presence of Adams caps everyone else in this receiving corps.

Among the backups, Keelan Cole and Foster Moreau stand out at WR and TE respectively. I predict both will be around 3 touchdowns scored this season. As for the backup RB room, I believe the majority of the production will go to Kenyan Drake, or rookie Zamir White. Using Drake’s career numbers, I would project him at 5 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving scores. My prediction for White’s usage is that it will take away from Drake’s rushing opportunities, more than Jacobs. So I split Drake’s projections into 2 rushing touchdowns for himself, and 3 for White. And considering Drake’s pass-catching skill set, and White’s lack of college targets, I kept both of the receiving scores for Drake.

Los Angeles Chargers

Total TD Projection: 52

Passing: 36

Rushing: 16

After a 2021 season, in which the team scored 56 offensive touchdowns, I have the Chargers slightly scaled back in my 2022 projections. And that is mostly due to me using Justin Herbet‘s career average TD rate instead of last year’s rate. While that only dips from 5.7% to 5.4%, it is still a difficult assessment to make. Will Herbert stay in the mid-5.0 % range like his first two seasons? Or does he make a leap into 6.0% territory or beyond? Anyone expecting a jump in production will certainly look at my predictions as conservative.

Perhaps the one aspect of my projections that is not surprising is the top targets for Herbert. I have the WR duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, as well as the RB Austin Ekeler, accounting for over half of Herbert’s passing touchdowns. I have that trio with over 55% of the Chargers receiving scores, or 20 of 36 be exact. This is somewhat of a step back as those three combined for over 60% of the team’s touchdowns through the air in 2021. But unlike this previous season where he was 3rd of the team receiving touchdowns, I actually have Allen leading the way with 8 in 2022.

In the past, there have certainly been seasons where Williams has had more end zone trips than Allen. But Allen has remained a consistent catcher and produced year-over-year, whereas Williams has been very up and down. So I give the nod to Allen with 8 receiving touchdowns compared to 7 for Williams. Behind that top trio, I project four Chargers to produce 3 receiving scores each, including both primary tight ends. Based on their respective career numbers, I could find very little difference between Gerald Everett and Donald Parham in terms of TD expectancy. So while Everett appears to be listed as the starter, I believe Parham is worth taking a shot on with the potential to be the top TE on the team in terms of touchdowns.

As for Ekeler, last year was his first season with double-digit rushing touchdowns. For my 2022 projections, instead of 12 rushing scores like he produced last season, I have Ekeler with 12 scrimmage touchdowns. Currently, the split is 7 on the ground and 5 through the air, but I am perhaps slightly shaky on the rushing number. Not only had he never hit double-digit rushing touchdowns before last year, but had Ekeler never produced more than 3 in a single season. Was last year an outlier or the start of a trend? Also, complicating matters is the arrival of rookie Isaiah Spiller. Was he brought in to take away some goal-line work? Currently, my projections are 7 rushing touchdowns for 7 and 3 for Spiller. But I would not be shocked if those two were closer.

Thank you for reading AFC West TD Projections. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @SenraSays Follow @FPC_FantasyPod and Facebook.