How the Vikings can shock the world and pull off an upset over the Lions

But this is the NFL, and even as 8.5-point underdogs, there's a world where the Vikings go to Ford Field and spring an upset that no one sees coming. Here's what they'll need to do to pull it off.

Stop the run

For the Vikings' defense, everything has to start with finding a way to stop the run. It's been an issue all season; Minnesota is allowing the eighth-worst EPA per rush in the NFL. Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Gainwell, Quinshon Judkins, and Kimani Vidal have run all over Brian Flores' group.

Ever since the Steelers used heavy personnel packages to run the ball on the Vikings in Dublin in Week 4, other teams have followed that game plan and had success. The Lions figure to do that as well by using second tight end Brock Wright or even bringing in Dan Skipper as a sixth offensive lineman.

The last time these two teams played in Detroit, in Week 18 of last season, Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 139 yards and three of his four touchdowns on the night. Expect the Lions to give the Vikings a heavy dose of Gibbs and David Montgomery in this one to test whether or not they can stop the run. If they can't, everything will be easy for Jared Goff in the passing game with the offense on schedule.

The good news for the Vikings is that Blake Cashman has been back for a couple weeks and it now looks like Andrew Van Ginkel will make his return as well. Van Ginkel does so many things well, including setting edges against the run.

"We gotta stop the run," Van Ginkel said on Wednesday. "You can't rush the passer if you can't stop the run. When teams are able to run the ball on you, it's kind of tough to play defense because then they have play action, they have deep shots like we saw with Philly. If we can stop the run, I think we can put ourselves in a great position. That's what we did successfully last year and it's something that we need to get back to."

Simplify things for McCarthy

This is a tough assignment for young Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who returns from a six-week injury absence to get the start against a Lions defense that ranks fourth in opponent EPA per play. The key for Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings is going to be putting together a game plan that makes things as simple as possible for McCarthy while highlighting what he does well.

Ideally, that will start with running the ball successfully with the duo of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, in order to stay on schedule as an offense and avoid third and long situations. It also has to include schemed-up easy throws for McCarthy in order to get the ball out of his hands quickly, much like Carson Wentz did against the Browns in Week 5. And then there has to be an element of play-action passing that allows McCarthy to let it rip to his star receivers on intermediate crossing routes.

If the Vikings' offensive line can give McCarthy time in the pocket, he'll have a chance to unleash the skill set that made Minnesota so excited about him coming into this season. It'll be interesting to see how much he uses one of his real strengths — his mobility outside of the pocket — after missing a big chunk of time with an ankle injury.

Win the turnover battle and finish in the red zone

These two apply to every game, but they'll be especially important as the Vikings look to pull off a significant upset on the road. The Vikings are -4 in the turnover margin this year, while the Lions are a +6. If O'Connell's team loses that battle, it'll be awfully hard to emerge with a win. They need McCarthy to take care of the ball and for their defense to find a way to create at least one takeaway against a Lions offense that has just five giveaways in seven games.

If and when the Vikings get into the red zone on offense, they have to be able to finish drives with touchdowns. They settled for five field goals on six trips to the red zone against the Eagles two Sundays ago. In that Week 18 game in Detroit last season, the Vikings had six straight trips into field goal range result in four field goal attempts and two turnovers on downs near the goal line. Field goals aren't going to be good enough to beat the Lions this week.