Insider shares worrisome stats about what Aaron Rodgers may be for 2025 Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin seemingly thinks that 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy through at least the bulk of the 2025 campaign and be an upgrade over what Russell Wilson and Justin Fields offered the club last season. 

That said, Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles in September 2023 and then battled through numerous physical setbacks as he won only five of 12 starts with the 2024 New York Jets. For a piece published on Friday, Steelers insider Mike DeFabo of The Athletic shared some worrisome stats regarding what Rodgers may give his current employer this coming fall. 

"He had a negative (expected points added) per dropback against the blitz (-0.19), according to TruMedia," DeFabo wrote about Rodgers' play with the Jets last season. "That was the worst mark among starting QBs who attempted at least 300 passes. He was also sacked ninth most (40), as the magician-like ability to evade the rush disappeared ... His passer rating (90.5) was a career-worst (minimum 20 attempts). His EPA per dropback had been positive in every complete season through 2021 and was as high as 0.40 in the mid-2000s. But it’s been negative for the last two complete seasons, in 2022 (-0.03) and 2024 (-0.02)."

It was suggested earlier in the spring before Rodgers officially joined the Steelers that the future Hall of Famer will enter training camp next week "feeling significantly better" than he did at this time last year. Fans looking for other reasons to be optimistic about Rodgers' Pittsburgh tenure could point out that he ended the 2024 season ranked eighth in the league with 3,897 total passing yards and tied for seventh with 28 touchdowns through the air. 

However, Pro Football Reference shows that Rodgers was also 28th among qualified passers with a 48.0 adjusted QBR. Additionally, there are legitimate reasons to believe his body will begin breaking down before December arrives. 

Rodgers dealt with a noteworthy toe injury during the 2021 season. He suffered a broken thumb on his throwing hand in Week 5 of the 2022 campaign and was later knocked out of a Week 12 contest with an injury to his ribs. After he joined the Jets in the spring of 2023, separate calf issues slowed him as he prepared for a season that ended when he tore his Achilles in his fourth meaningful in-game offensive snap.

In short, playing football doesn't seem to agree with Rodgers' body as it did roughly five years ago. 

"One reason for optimism is Rodgers has thrived in the West Coast offense, which often relies on quick, precise passes thrown with timing and anticipation," DeFabo added. "Last year, Rodgers' 6.9 air yards per attempt was the second-lowest mark of his career. The Steelers will likely try to lean on a quick passing game to protect him from the rush and get the ball in the hands of playmakers."

Rodgers and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith reportedly began crafting what will become Pittsburgh's offensive scheme ahead of training camp. Smith may think he has an ideal system to get the most out of Rodgers, but it remains to be seen how the four-time MVP will respond the next time he takes a crunching hit during a game.