Is Tua worth top-five pick? A guide to QBs in 2020 draft

Is the gap between Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert sizable?

Although Tagovailoa played behind an elite offensive line, he graded significantly better against pressure than Herbert. Tagovailoa’s 91.4 QBR when blitzed last season is just behind the figure of Joe Burrow (91.5), the presumptive No. 1 pick of the Bengals. Tua’s in-pocket QBR number (96.2) led the 2020 class; Herbert (78.8) ranked seventh.

The obvious caveat: Tua threw to three first-round-caliber wideouts in Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and Devonta Smith. Herbert’s Oregon cast was not on that level. Tagovailoa averaged a Division I-FBS-record 10.9 yards per attempt in his career. Herbert, whose arm talent thrust him onto the top-10 radar two years ago, ended his college run at 8.2. The four-year Ducks starter brings superior durability and size (6-foot-6 to 6-0) compared to Tagovailoa and showed well at the Scouting Combine. But if the Crimson Tide phenom did not go down last season, this would not be a debate.

The Dolphins will go for the lefty, right?

Months before the Kyler Murray-Daniel Jones-Dwayne Haskins quarterback class donned team-issued hats, the Dolphins had the 2020 QBs on their radar. (Burrow was not viewed as a first-rounder when the Dolphins’ vetting odyssey began.) Owner Stephen Ross went to last season’s Alabama-LSU game and joined GM Chris Grier at a Citrus Bowl contest in which Tagovailoa did not play. Miami also employs ideal bridge QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and its front office clearly has the go-ahead from Ross –- given Grier’s gutting of the team last year -– to orchestrate a true rebuild. This would allow Tagovailoa a Patrick Mahomes/Carson Palmer-style developmental year if necessary.

Do not be surprised if Grier executes a trade-up to make sure his plan produces the quarterback he covets. The Dolphins are just the 22nd team in NFL history to hold three first-round picks; their assets far outflank the Chargers’. 

If the Dolphins choose Herbert, it will be viewed as a health-related decision. Herbert may turn his measurables into a lengthy career, but the Dolphins were once burned by a health-conscious choice. Their hesitancy regarding Drew Brees’ shoulder during a 2006 free-agency pursuit steered him to New Orleans. Brees is the quarterback to whom Tagovailoa has been most compared.

Where would that leave the Chargers?

The Bolts are navigating a more complex situation. Buried in Los Angeles’ sports scene, they are moving into a 70,000-seat stadium and need to make an impression soon (though COVID-19 may delay fan attendance this coming season, further complicating this process). The Chargers signed three 30-somethings in cornerback Chris Harris, defensive tackle Linval Joseph and right tackle Bryan Bulaga. They also have a high-end skill-position group. Free agent Cam Newton would make more sense for Los Angeles’ timeline and fan-attracting potential, but this franchise has a rare opportunity with the No. 6 overall pick.

Herbert would not move the needle like Newton, and Tagovailoa’s timetable would not mesh with the Chargers’ suddenly veteran-laden starting lineup’s. But the Bolts have only held two top-10 picks since 2004 and opted against drafting a Rivers heir apparent each time. Needing to make a splash in the NFL’s second-largest market, they seem likely to leave this draft with someone other than Tyrod Taylor as the answer at QB. If the Bolts get this right, their talented roster will be a threat soon. If not, the Rams’ co-tenant in SoFi Stadium is in big trouble.

How uncertain is the Jordan Love market?

Love has surfaced as the consensus No. 4 QB prospect this year. The NFL canceling all pre-draft visits and workouts probably hurt the 6-foot-4 Utah State star, who would have benefited from more time with personnel staffs. The Dolphins, however, did bring him in for a visit before the league kiboshed such activity. Would they do something crazy like go for the best player available at No. 5 and then prepare to pounce on Love at or ahead of their No. 18 pick? Otherwise, the market for Love, a developmental QB, seems cloudy.

Love posted a 32-6 TD-INT ratio in 2018 but regressed to a 20-17 line last season, though his situation worsened between his sophomore and junior slates. He makes sense for a team like the Colts, but they traded their first-round pick to the 49ers for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. Rivers’ one-year deal buys the Colts time, but not much. 

Other possibilities for Love include the Jaguars, who hold two first-rounders and stripped their roster of most of the contributors from 2017’s AFC Championship Game-qualifying team. But their head coach-GM tandem (Dave Caldwell-Doug Marrone) resides on a hot seat and Jacksonville seems to have committed to Gardner Minshew at QB. The Raiders hold two first-rounders as well but now employ Marcus Mariota as a backup to Derek Carr.

Are the Patriots really prepared to go with Jarrett Stidham?

If the Bengals, Dolphins and Chargers land their QBs, only one team would definitively need a 2020 starting quarterback: the Patriots. The early word points to the Pats giving 2019 fourth-rounder  Stidham a chance to succeed Tom Brady. But Newton, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton all may be available after the draft, so they remain options for New England. (The Bengals presumably want to trade Dalton, who has a $17.5 million cap number.)  Each would better complement an aging roster, though Stidham would hold the upper hand for Pats systemic intel because of COVID-19’s effect on the offseason. 

If Stidham fared poorly, Bill Belichick’s defense -– No. 1 in DVOA last season –- could keep the Pats afloat to the point they will not be a candidate for 2021 draft real estate capable of landing Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State’s Justin Fields.  The Pats pick 23rd, do not hold a second-round pick and have three third-round selections. Those could be packaged to move up for Love or one of the second-tier prospects, but any climb into the top 10 would require more ammunition.

What will the Bengals and Redskins do?

Burrow and Ohio State defensive lineman Chase Young are overwhelming favorites to land in Cincinnati and Washington with the No. 1 and 2 picks, respectively. 

The Bengals are unlikely to be swayed by previous rumblings of Burrow -– who prepared for the draft with Jordan Palmer, younger brother of ex-disgruntled Bengal Carson –- hoping the team does not pick him. Cincinnati also spent heavily on outside free agents this year, perhaps a sign the long-conservative franchise will make a better effort to explore roster-improvement avenues as it zeroes in on Burrow.

As for the Redskins, only two teams (the 1982-83 Baltimore Colts and 2018-19 Arizona Cardinals) have taken first-round quarterbacks in back-to-back years.  Should Ron Rivera bypass the latest Ohio State pass-rushing monster for Tagovailoa, Haskins would be set to endure the fate of Josh Rosen. The former UCLA star, picked with the 10th overall pick by the Cardinals in 2018, was dealt to Miami last year after Arizona selected Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick.

The Redskins will be highly unlikely to get a first-round pick back for last year’s No. 15 overall choice -– and last-place QBR finisher (by a mile). The Redskins’ trade for ex-Panther Kyle Allen would mean Haskins -– in a Tua-to-D.C. scenario -– will be in line to be a backup elsewhere. 

Will Saints, Steelers select their successors or wait another year?

The Steelers have probably learned that 2018 third-round pick Mason Rudolph will not be Ben Roethlisberger’s successor. With Roethlisberger amid lengthy elbow rehab, Pittsburgh profiles as a player for Winston or Newton due to a veteran-fueled roster’s need for a capable backup. The Saints are basing a lot on 13 pass attempts, but their first-round restricted free-agent tender on Taysom Hill is telling. Nearly 30 despite entering the league in 2017, the ex-undrafted free agent is an unusual Brees successor option. As such, the Saints are a team to watch for a second-round QB prospect.

Tier 2 includes inexperienced arm-strength maven Jacob Eason (U. of Washington), ex-Eason Georgia teammate Jake Fromm -– who is plenty seasoned but has a limited arm -– and Oklahoma dual threat Jalen Hurts. The Steelers do not pick until No. 49. The Saints have a first-rounder (No. 24), but in advance of what could well be Brees’ final season, New Orleans having an all-hands-on-deck mantra rather than drafting a player who will not help win Super Bowl LV would add up. If the teams with the longest-tenured starters pass, they join the fascinating 2021 mix.

What will the Lawrence-Fields sweepstakes look like?

With Lawrence penciled in as 2021’s No. 1 overall pick since his freshman year, teams not committed to landing one of 2020’s top signal-callers should be considering 2021’s group. 

Lawrence and Fields are the early leaders to go first and second next year. Burrow shows how difficult projecting a year ahead can be, but teams like the Chiefs, Jets, Browns and Dolphins represent recent examples of teams plotting a year ahead. The 2021 draft may feature the interesting combination of bad teams occupying the Nos. 1-2 draft slots and strong organizations willing to give up the farm for them.
The Jags represent a prime bet to pick high, and Matt Rhule’s seven-year Panthers contract puts Carolina in the QB mix -– considering Teddy Bridgewater’s contract can be easily shed in 2022. 

If Rivera sticks with Haskins, his abysmal rookie year could make them a candidate for the Lawrence-Fields slots. Then, a flood of teams would emerge as interested traders, with some stealth suitors in that throng as well. The Steelers, Saints and Patriots from the contender wing might be among them; the Colts and Raiders from the middle class and potentially the Bucs because of their quarterback’s historically advanced age might join them.

How did 2011’s lockout-nixed offseason affect rookie QBs?

A difference in procedures between 2011 and 2020: teams could not communicate with players that offseason. While rookies were still free to work out at fitness centers and throw passes to teammates or non-NFL-affiliated able-bodied targets during the lockout in non-quarantined society, they entered training camp in August well behind their predecessors.

Overall, however, it did not seem to affect that rookie class’ work too much. The QBs from that draft who turned out to have futures as starters –- Offensive Rookie of the Year Cam Newton and Andy Dalton -– started in Week 1 and held onto those jobs for most of the decade. Jake Locker (chosen eighth overall), Blaine Gabbert (10th) and Christian Ponder (12th) struggled in limited work that year, which turned out to be an indicator of their NFL capabilities. COVID-19 will hijack 2020 rookies’ offseasons, but the work of Newton and Dalton nine years ago provides a positive sign for this class.