Jameis Winston’s suspension will dictate Bucs' path for years

2017 was to be the breakout season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were coming off a just-short-of-the-postseason 9-7 campaign, with a third-year quarterback, and added star power in the form of DeSean Jackson.

The Bucs had been a trendy playoff pick by analysts for a few seasons at that point. The perception seemed to solidify the league’s decision to pick the Bucs as the subject for that year’s “Hard Knocks” season. The problem was they never lived up to the hype.

Following a 2-1 start, Tampa quickly fizzled out, losing five straight and 10 of its last 13 to finish 5-11. Head coach Dirk Koetter and general manager Jason Licht narrowly survived the lost season, but it’s difficult to imagine that they would again with a subpar 2018 campaign.

If the offseason prior to 2017 was reserved for stocking more weapons for the offense, the Bucs’ 2018 offseason was focused on shoring up the defense. There was good reason for that, as Tampa was a touchdown away from giving up the most points in the NFC last season. The Bucs brought on Vinny Curry, Jason Pierre-Paul and Beau Allen, as well as retained Brent Grimes. Perhaps none of those is a silver bullet automatically delivering the Buccaneers to success, but they were still encouraging moves that should position a middle-of-the-pack team closer to success.

Then the Bucs this past week received the news that Jameis Winston will be suspended for at least three games by the NFL for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. The NFL since November has been investigating an allegation made by an Uber driver that Winston groped her in March 2016. Winston denied the allegation and has the option of appealing a suspension. The driver did not press charges following the alleged incident, though she did file a complaint with Uber.

The Buccaneers’ 2018 schedule is practically designed to punish a team limping out of the gate. Tampa spends the first three weeks of the season playing at New Orleans, then at home against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. That’s three reigning division champs, all of them winners of at least 11 games in the 2017 regular season, one of which also happens to also be the reigning Super Bowl champion. Those would be difficult even with Winston playing. Without him, an 0-3 start is virtually assured.

Winston, assuming his suspension is in fact three games as reported, would return for a winnable game in Week 4 in Chicago, though that assumes the Bears won’t be improved with new head coach Matt Nagy, a vast improvement in offensive playcalling over John Fox, in Mitch Trubisky’s second season. Besides, why should the Bears be considered a rollover for the Bucs when both teams finished 2017 with the same 5-11 record?

An early bye in Week 5 might be handy for a team stuck in an early slump, but it will make matters more difficult as the season wears on. Assuming Tampa can roll off enough wins to get back in contention, will the Bucs have enough left in the tank for the final three weeks that has them on the road in Baltimore and Dallas before hosting the Falcons to close out the regular season?

2018 figures prominently for the core of the Buccaneers. Not only is it critical for Koetter and Licht, but for Winston as well. All three are likely done with another flameout of a season. Winston’s fate is tied to wins and losses like any starting quarterback, though there are further complications with his situation.

Tampa this spring exercised the fifth-year option on Winston’s rookie deal, meaning the team is set to pay him $20.9 million for 2019 if he’s on the roster next March. There is speculation the Buccaneers could part ways with Winston if the details revealed by the NFL investigation into the sexual assault case are damning enough. If not, they take on a risk keeping him with a half-hearted commitment, both in terms of alienating some outraged fans and the specifics of Winston’s contract. That $20.9 million figure is fully guaranteed for injury throughout the 2018 season, even if the team decides to release him before March 2019. So if the Bucs decide to keep Winston on a wait-and-see basis, they risk owing him big if he gets injured this coming season.

It would work neatly if the Bucs could head into the 2018 saying it’s playoffs or bust for the quarterback, head coach and general manager. That very well may be true for the latter two. What we’ll learn about Winston in the coming weeks will dictate whether that scenario plays out. Still, the guarantee for injury in Winston’s contract means he’s a tricky gamble if the Bucs are still interested in having him around on a conditional basis, and the latest revelations on his status certainly don't make the decision any easier for Tampa.