NFL exec warns Chiefs could be on the verge of a painful collapse

If you ask Ron Carthon, the "window is closing" for the Kansas City Chiefs.

It's easy to write off a random opinion, but the larger context for Carthon's comments are at least interesting to discuss at this point in the NFL offseason, especially because they do point out a couple of potential realities facing down the Chiefs in the very near future.

First, to set the stage, Carthon, a former NFL general manager for the Tennessee Titans, gave his comments about the Chiefs' potential demise on a recent segment of "With the First Pick" on the NFL on CBS.

"My burning question was: is this the final year of this championship window for the Chiefs? And it's hard to say this against an Andy Reid-led team, right? Because he's found at different times how to reimagine this offense and do different things to just, again, reimagine the offense. Everyone thought they wouldn't do anything without Tyreek Hill, and then here they are again," said Carthon.

"However, I will jump in the minority and say I think this window for the Chiefs is closing," he continued, "because you have some key components on this team. ... you have Chris Jones that's getting older and still nursing a knee injury. Then you have Travis Kelce entering the final year of his deal, and he is making more money off the field than he is on the field at this point. And so I think that window is closing."

Carthon mentions two things that will, at some point, happen for the Chiefs—like it or not. Future Hall of fame tight end Travis Kelce will, in fact, walk away from the game at some point following this season or one soon thereafter. All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones will hit the wall at some point into his thirties and fail to deliver the sort of game-altering disruption that he does today.

These changes will undoubtedly affect the Chiefs. Without Kelce, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is going to have to learn to trust someone else as a volume go-to target when a first down conversion is essential.

That moment could come as early as this season with the continued development of Rashee Rice into WR1 for the team's offense. But of course, such things are not guaranteed, given that he's returning from injury and facing a potential suspension.

For Jones, the challenge of replacing his presence, charisma, leadership, and production is going to be even greater. There are few players in the NFL who provide that level of defensive impact, and the Chiefs would be best served trying a committee approach, since that's too great of a burden of expectation to place on a single player.

An answer might be found in the wave of younger players entering into their years along the Chiefs' defense line. Omarr Norman-Lott is the best potential disruptor along the interior that Brett Veach has drafted in years. Waves of early picks on the edges should also help build a quality pass rush left to right.

While the offseason is always full of doubts about the Chiefs due to the fact that it doesn't generate conversation for someone to state the obvious—that K.C. is likely to dominate once again—Carthon's primary points are at least worthy of discussion. The Chiefs have leaned on a few pillars during this dynastic run and it's possible that those will give way sooner than later.

We just would not bet on any "window" closing because of it.