2022 Arizona Cardinals win total: Contender or pretender?

The Arizona Cardinals made the playoffs last season but bowed out pretty meekly to the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round. Nevertheless, they won 11 games (finishing second in the division) so the fact that their win total is set at 9.5 with +135 to the over is pretty interesting (until you look deeper).

The Cardinals get a bit of a break as the Seattle Seahawks are not going to be good this season, but the NFC West is still one of the strongest divisions in the NFL with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, who the Rams beat in the NFC title game. 

Arizona is in a tough spot with QB Kyler Murray as it has to determine just how much it wants to invest in the star quarterback. The going rate for quarterbacks is very high the Cardinals are likely not wanting to find themselves in a position like the Dallas Cowboys, who are likely regretting paying Dak Prescott like he is one of the best in the game and hamstringing their ability to get better around him.

Nevertheless, the Cardinals have doubled-down on offense this season with the acquisition of WR "Hollywood" Brown from Baltimore. An acquisition made that much more critical by the fact that WR DeAndre Hopkins has been suspended for the first 6 games of the season. That stretch is going to be very difficult, possibly sinking the team. 

Arizona Cardinals win total

Over 9.5 (+135)
Under 9.5 (-160)

The Pick: Under 9.5

Even with Hopkins around it was going to be tough for the Cardinals to get off to a good start. Their first 3 games are home against Kansas City, at the Las Vegas Raiders and then home against the Rams. An 0-3 start is a very real possibility, even if they are playing well. Further, if they do start 0-3 and Murray is still not signed long-term things are going to get pretty uncomfortable all the way around for Arizona.

Quite simply there are just not a lot of easy games on the schedule this season and the Cardinals are also giving up a home game against San Francisco that is being played in Mexico City. They are taking on the AFC West, probably the best division in the NFL this season. They might not be favored in any of those games. 

I see just two or three "automatic" wins for the Cardinals this season, two games against the Seahawks and maybe their game hosting New Orleans, who is pretty directionless. (Maybe a trip to Atlanta qualifies there, too.)

More than half of their schedule comes against playoff teams from a year ago, plus Denver and the Chargers, two teams most believe will make the playoffs this season. That +135 on the over is enticing but when I look at this team, against that schedule, I don't see more than 6 wins.

Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, that might mean a reset of the franchise's direction. I am not sure they can find someone better than Murray but it would stand to reason that they have to consider what they are really paying for if the team takes a major step back.