NFL Week 7 matchups: An insiders' guide

SUNDAY

Miami (0-5) at Buffalo (4-1), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Dolphins numbers: The Dolphins have improved their point differential over the previous game in four consecutive contests. Run defense is one area where Miami is decent; in its past two games, the Dolphins have allowed 3.4 yards per rush attempt, eighth best since Week 4. Continuing that success will be crucial against a Bills offense ranked sixth in rush yards per game (139.6), eighth in rush attempts per game (28.8), and ninth in rushing EPA.

Inside Dolphins roster: Miami’s loss to lowly Washington further revealed how long of a rebuild this might be and should prompt the question, “Can a 2020 first-round quarterback develop in this environment?” Beyond Xavien Howard, Christian Wilkins and perhaps a skill-position player or two, needs exist across this roster. The Dolphins will have to do well in free agency and the draft – improvement avenues that helped sink the franchise to where it is now – to field a competent team around Tua Tagovailoa or whomever is chosen in the draft.

Inside Bills numbers: The Bills win on the strength of an elite defense (No. 2 in points per drive), but they need more from Josh Allen. The QB has the league's fourth-highest interception percentage (4.3 percent) and fifth-worst passer rating (75.2) among qualifiers. (League average passer rating is 91.2.) The Dolphins are the perfect opponent: Miami's 131.0 passer rating allowed is the highest in NFL history through a team's first five games.

Inside Bills roster: Buffalo trading Zay Jones, one of ex-GM Doug Whaley’s second-round picks, creates another question on a pass offense that’s still one of the league’s worst. Second-year UDFA Robert Foster shined amid last season’s offensive disarray, totaling a whopping 541 yards on 27 receptions. But multiple injuries have limited him this season and moved 2019 UDFA Duke Williams into Jones’ old spot. Williams caught four passes for 29 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, but it’s unfortunate Foster may not have an immediate opportunity to join a less abysmal Bills receiving corps.

Jacksonville (2-4) at Cincinnati (0-6), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Jaguars numbers: The Gardner Minshew-led Jaguars offense moves the ball well (third in yards per rush, 14th in net yards per pass attempt), but it must be better in the red zone. Jacksonville has scored a touchdown on just 38.9 percent of red-zone drives, fourth worst in the league. 

Inside Jaguars roster: The Jags did better than any team has in obtaining value for a cornerback. The two-first-rounder haul the Rams sent for Jalen Ramsey blows away the Jets’ 2013 Darrelle Revis return and gives the Jags two low-cost assets around which to build. While those picks will be key for an expensive roster, the team that was a correctly ruled Myles Jack fumble recovery from Super Bowl LII is now pointed toward a rebuild. Having chased one of the best talents in team history away, is executive VP Tom Coughlin the one to orchestrate it?

Inside Bengals numbers: The Bengals are terrible in the run game on both sides of the ball. They were out-gained on the ground by 236 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, Cincinnati's worst rushing differential since 1969. Overall, the Bengals are last in rushing yards per game offensively (56.5) and defensively (184.5). 

Inside Bengals roster: In addition to the issues the winless team may have containing Leonard Fournette, it is now down two members of its first-round cornerback contingent. Dre Kirkpatrick is set to miss approximately a month due to a knee injury, and would-be slot man Darqueze Dennard – re-signed in March after a “minor” knee surgery that’s shelved him since – has not returned to practice and remains on the Bengals’ PUP list. The absences of the franchise’s 2012 and 2014 first-round DBs, respectively, do not leave much talent beyond 2016 Round 1 corner William Jackson III.

Minnesota (4-2) at Detroit (2-2-1), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Vikings numbers: The Vikings have taken care of business outside their division, going 4-0 with a +18.0 point differential, but intra-division road games are an issue. Minnesota's two losses came in Green Bay and Chicago. In each game, their defense played well (18.5 PPG allowed) but their offense was putrid (11.0 PPG). Turnovers were a big problem in those games, as the Vikings gave the ball away six times. 

Inside Vikings roster: A veteran-fueled Minnesota team has received pivotal work from one of its lower-cost starters. Anthony Harris, a former UDFA playing on a second-round restricted free-agent tender, enters Week 7 as PFF’s No. 1 overall safety despite being in his first year as a full-time starter. Helping keep Minnesota’s defense a top-flight group, the fifth-year Viking has intercepted two passes and made 28 tackles. The Vikings already have an astounding seven defenders making at least $10 million annually, so it will be interesting to see how they proceed with their latest homegrown gem.

Inside Lions numbers: Once again, a poor run game holds back the Lions offense. One week after rushing for a season-high 186 yards, Detroit ran for a season-low 56 in Green Bay. The Lions are ranked 29th in rushing EPA. That puts their ground attack at a huge disadvantage against a Vikings team ranked third in rush defense EPA. 

Inside Lions roster: The status is uncertain for third-year linebacker Jarrad Davis, who dazzled with strong “mic’d up” work on “Monday Night Football.” Pro Football Focus’ views are certainly not the final word, but it’s worth noting the site has given the 2017 first-rounder poor marks in ‘17 and ’18 and views him in a worse light this season. Detroit’s middle linebacker grades as PFF’s No. 80 off-ball ‘backer – ahead of only four players. The Lions must decide on Davis’ fifth-year option by May, making the rest of his 2019 season critical.

Oakland (3-2) at Green Bay (5-1), 1 p.m. ET 

Inside Raiders numbers: Strong play in the trenches on each side of the ball powered the Raiders above .500. In Weeks 4-5, Oakland ranked fourth in rushing yards (357) and fewest rushing yards allowed (123). Green Bay can be taken advantage of in the ground game; it has been out-gained on the ground by an average of 18.7 yards per game.

Inside Raiders roster: Jon Gruden’s first Raiders stay featured wideout stability, with Tim Brown, James Jett and later Jerry Rice spearheading a strong era for Raiders receivers. Gruden 2.0 has tinkered with this group often. No key member of Oakland’s 2018 receiving corps remains on the team, and two non-Antonio Brown additions (J.J. Nelson and Ryan Grant) are already gone. The Raiders traded for two wideouts this season, Trevor Davis and Zay Jones. With Tyrell Williams dealing with a foot injury, Gruden’s makeshift cast – which also includes rookies Hunter Renfrow and Keelan Doss – may be shorthanded for a tough assignment.

Inside Packers numbers: The Packers do a nice job protecting Aaron Rodgers, who has taken just four sacks over 155 pass attempts since Week 3 (2.5 percent sack rate). Over the same span, Green Bay opponents have averaged just 2.8 quarterback hits per game. Rodgers could come off the field with a clean jersey after taking on the Raiders, who are ranked last in pressure rate (13.3 percent). 

Inside Packers roster: Two of Green Bay’s three 2018 receiver draft picks are not on the current 53-man roster, but 2018 UDFA Alan Lazard came through for Rodgers in a crucial spot. Poor officiating obscured Lazard’s four-reception, 65-yard night, but the 6-foot-5 Iowa State alum profiles as an interesting Packers project. The team snuck Lazard through waivers after a strong preseason, and Rodgers lobbied receivers coach Alvis Whitted to give the second-year man more playing time. For a team that may be missing Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison, Lazard could be vitally important.

L.A. Rams (3-3) at Atlanta (1-5), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Rams numbers: L.A. must take better care of the football, as it has turned the ball over on 17.1 percent of offensive drives (sixth worst). Poor ball security is a major reason Sean McVay's offense is ranked a disappointing 12th in points per drive. There are no excuses if the turnover problems continue against a Falcons defense ranked 30th in turnover percentage (3.4 percent).

Inside Rams roster: The latest of GM Les Snead’s blockbuster trades – Tuesday’s Jalen Ramsey acquisition – places the Rams in line to go five years without making a first-round pick. Arguments should be made for a not-yet-25-year-old All-Pro being more valuable than two mid-to-late first-rounders. But with the Rams’ payroll flush with top-market contracts, the franchise dealing away its top two near-future draft assets is a risk. With the Todd Gurley and Jared Goff extensions potentially becoming onerous, Los Angeles’ soon-to-be historically top-heavy cap sheet (after a Ramsey re-up) will limit its flexibility.

Inside Falcons numbers: The Falcons are playing well offensively (seventh in points per drive), but their awful defense is the reason they're 1-5. Atlanta is last in points allowed per drive and yards allowed per drive, mainly due to a struggling secondary allowing the league's third-highest passer rating (119.2). L.A.'s offense, ranked 17th in net yards per pass attempt, is overdue for a strong performance.  

Inside Falcons roster: Atlanta’s expensive roster already introduced the prospect of having to let starters walk in 2020 free agency, and now that the Falcons are 1-5, they may need to consider dealing contract-year starters linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, defensive end Vic Beasley or even emerging tight end Austin Hooper. Those players leaving in March may net the Falcons Day 3 compensatory picks in 2021, but with Matt Ryan turning 35 in 2020 and Julio Jones set for his age-31 season next year, it might be best to collect 2020 draft assets by trading non-cornerstone talent now.

Houston (4-2) at Indianapolis (3-2), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Texans numbers: Houston's effective run game has powered its 4-2 start -- it ranks fourth in rushing EPA. Deshaun Watson's running ability plays a huge role in that success, as he already has five rushing touchdowns (most among quarterbacks). Watson, Lamar Miller and Duke Johnson can take advantage of a Colts defense ranked 25th in rush defense EPA and 28th in yards per rush attempt allowed (5.1).

Inside Texans roster: On the heels of defeating the Chiefs on the road, one of its best regular-season wins in many years, Houston must rearrange its offensive line again. First-round pick Tytus Howard, who had started at two positions this season, suffered a partial MCL tear against the Chiefs. This will move Roderick Johnson, a 2017 Browns draftee with just seven games on his resume, into the Texans’ right tackle spot. This could pose familiar trouble for Deshaun Watson. After being sacked an NFL-most 81 times from Week 1 2018 to Week 4 this season, Watson has not been dropped in Houston’s past two games.

Inside Colts numbers: Indy's elite offensive line has powered the Colts' offense to fifth in points per drive. Jacoby Brissett, who took an extremely high 10 percent sack rate over his career prior to 2019, has taken a sack rate of just 3.5 percent. That ranks third best among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. Keeping Brissett clean will be essential against a Texans defense tied for eighth in quarterback hits per game (6.2). 

Inside Colts roster: In advance of the biggest game of the Brissett era, Indianapolis received good news on the injury front. All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard and veteran safety starter Clayton Geathers cleared concussion protocol and are in line to return. The 2018 Defensive Rookie of the Year, Leonard missed the past three Colts games. Indianapolis held Kansas City to 10 points without either starter; having them back further enhances expectations for 2019.

San Francisco (5-0) at Washington (1-5), 1 p.m. ET

Inside 49ers numbers: The Niners' defense held the Rams to under 10 points in their own building for the first time in the Sean McVay era.  San Francisco's stellar pass rush (second in pressure rate) has been the key to their success. The 49ers, ranked second in pass defense EPA, have a chance to obliterate the Redskins' passing attack, which is ranked 28th in EPA.

Inside 49ers roster: San Francisco has five first-round picks on its defensive line, and a unit that has never put it together in recent years is thriving. Four 49ers (Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Ronald Blair) sit in the top 11 of PFF’s edge defender rankings. Six 49ers have at least two sacks. Although injuries have limited Ford (3.5 sacks) to 118 snaps, he has a good chance of becoming the first 49er edge rusher to record seven sacks in a season since Aldon Smith in 2013.

Inside Redskins numbers: Washington has picked up 145 rushing yards in back-to-back games after averaging a brutal 49.8 rushing yards per game over Weeks 1-4. In Week 6 against Miami, Adrian Peterson broke out in a big way, rushing for 118 yards and five first downs on 23 carries after picking up 108 yards and four first downs on 40 carries over his first four games. Keeping that momentum going will be tough against a 49ers run defense ranked ninth in EPA, but San Francisco has allowed over 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games.

Inside Redskins roster: Washington brass plans to give Bill Callahan and the remaining Jay Gruden staffers a legitimate audition to see if they’re worth retaining. Considering Callahan has only three years of coordinator experience since his 2004 ouster as Raiders head coach, and the Gruden era did not produce a 10-win season, allotting his holdover assistants this kind of opportunity is an odd strategy. The Redskins may have beaten the Dolphins, but it’s debatable if their long-term blueprint is more viable than Miami’s radical new mission.

Arizona (2-3-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-4), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Cardinals numbers: Kyler Murray broke out with career-bests of three passing touchdowns, 9.2 yards per attempt, and a 128.2 passer rating in Week 6. He is putting together a highly impressive rookie season; his average of 277.3 passing yards per game is on track to set a rookie record. Murray will have a great chance to pad those numbers against a Giants defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game (285).

Inside Cardinals roster: With the Jalen Ramsey sweepstakes producing a two-first-rounder trade package, Arizona figures to see CB Patrick Peterson trade calls intensify. If the Eagles or Chiefs offer a first-rounder and more for the 29-year-old cornerback, the Cardinals must assess whether Peterson’s early 30s – on a third contract that will exceed his current $14 million salary – will be more valuable than recouping high-level draft assets to accelerate a rebuild. The Cards’ cheap Murray deal would allow them to retain Peterson, whose six-game PED ban is over. But does he fit in their next era?

Inside Giants numbers: Big Blue needs better play from its cornerbacks. The Giants' top three corners (Janoris Jenkins, DeAndre Baker, and Grant Haley) have combined to allow 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns on 97 targets this season, giving up absurdly poor rates of 10.9 yards per target and a 7.2 percent touchdown rate. A lack of depth in the secondary may hurt the Giants against Arizona's deep passing attack ⁠— six Cardinals eclipsed 30 receiving yards and three players caught a touchdown pass for them in Week 6.

Inside Giants roster: The post-Jason Pierre-Paul/Olivier Vernon era looked bleak for the Giants, with the team employing no proven sack artists after trading its former anchors. But Markus Golden has provided a nice return on New York’s one-year, $3.75 million investment. Golden has five sacks, his most noticeable coming on a Week 6 fumble-6 sequence against the Patriots. The ex-Cardinal second-round pick racked up 12.5 sacks in 2016, but a 2017 ACL tear led to a 15-game stretch with just 2.5. Golden could soon push for a Giants extension, given the team’s thin makeup at outside linebacker.

L.A. Chargers (2-4) at Tennessee (2-4), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Chargers numbers: Luck has turned on the Chargers, who are 1-4 in one-score games after going 7-1 in those contests last season. Poor situational defense is a major reason L.A. has failed to come up big in key moments, as the Chargers are ranked 19th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed and 29th in third-down conversion rate allowed. It would be worrisome if those issues continued against a terrible Titans offense that is ranked 18th in red-zone touchdown rate and 29th in third-down conversion rate.

Inside Chargers roster: The Bolts’ offensive line losing another starter, center Mike Pouncey, deals another blow to Melvin Gordon’s bid at standing out in his contract year. The two-time Pro Bowler is averaging 2.5 yards per carry in two games since he ended his holdout, and each game has seen the Chargers forced into pass-heavy mode. Le’Veon Bell preserved his body by avoiding contact en route to free agency. With a lesser resume, Gordon now runs the risk of an injury – in what’s looking like a lost Chargers season – derailing his coveted contract offer.

Inside Titans numbers:  Tennessee has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game, and it ranks fourth in fewest points allowed per drive and total defensive EPA. The third-down battle between the Chargers offense and Titans defense will be one to watch, as Tennessee's defense ranks third on third down (27.6 percent) and Los Angeles' offense ranks sixth (48.1 percent). 

Inside Titans roster: Mariota’s benching likely stonewalls his last-ditch effort to command even fringe-starter-level money on the 2020 market, but it gives Tannehill a lifeline. The seven-year Dolphins starter only fetched two Day 3 draft picks in a March trade, and a contract adjustment made 2019 a Tannehill contract year. The tepid trade interest in the injury-prone quarterback showed the NFL’s view of him, but the 31-year-old passer was somewhat efficient coming off the bench. The Titans appear headed for a 2020 QB pick; Tannehill may have an outside chance at changing the equation.

Baltimore (4-2) at Seattle (5-1), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Ravens numbers: Baltimore leads the league in rushing (205 yards per game). The Ravens also lead the league in rushing EPA (41.4), a mark more than twice as good as the second-ranked rushing EPA offense (Cardinals, 17.6). Lamar Jackson's team is the first to average over 200 rushing yards through six games since the Mike Vick-led 2006 Falcons. They'll face a tough challenge against a Seahawks defense that has allowed only 68 rushing yards per game at home. 

Inside Ravens roster: Marcus Peters has been one of the NFL’s most mercurial cornerbacks in years, but the former first-round pick gives the Ravens an incredibly deep position group. Peters, Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith profile as one of the most recognizable corner quartets of the salary cap era. And while Peters has been an inconsistent player since his 2016 All-Pro slate, he rates as PFF’s No. 14 corner in 2019. Trading a fifth-rounder and LB Kenny Young for Peters, who has eight more interceptions (24) than anyone else since 2015, is a low-risk move for a Ravens team that ranks 25th in pass defense.

Inside Seahawks numbers: Russell Wilson is the early MVP frontrunner, leading the NFL with a 124.7 passer rating. (91.2 is average.) He's done it on the strength of a 14-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, an all-time record for the most touchdown passes without an interception through six games. 

Inside Seahawks roster: Will Dissly’s second season-ending injury in two years strips Wilson of a key option. The second-year tight end amassed 250 yards between Weeks 2-5, and Seattle traded Nick Vannett to Pittsburgh in September. While the post-Doug Baldwin Seahawks will be tested, the team bringing back Luke Willson after his “Hard Knocks” role ended with an August release was smart – especially with Ed Dickson on IR. A Seahawk complementary piece from 2013-17, Willson will anchor this team’s tight end corps. That said, he has not topped 215 yards in a season since 2014.

New Orleans (5-1) at Chicago (3-2), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Saints numbers: New Orleans has allowed just 13.3 points per game over the past three weeks. Shutting down the opponent's lead back has been the key. Ezekiel Elliott, Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have combined to average 47.3 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry. The Saints have a good chance to keep this going against Bears lead back David Montgomery, who has averaged a brutal 2.4 yards per carry over his past two games. 

Inside Saints roster: P.J. Williams’ two-game suspension for a substance abuse violation will bring an unusual backup to the forefront. Former Saints first-round pick-turned-Eagles Super Bowl starter Patrick Robinson has spent his age-32 season as a reserve. The Saints re-acquired Robinson on a $5 million-per-year deal in 2018 to be their slot corner, but a season-ending injury scuttled that plan. Williams then usurped him this season. Robinson and fourth-round rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who has out-snapped Robinson 68-8 in 2019, represent strong depth for the NFC South leaders.

Inside Bears numbers: Mitch Trubisky's status remains up in the air, but what does not remain in question is the fact that Chicago must get more from its passing attack. The Bears average 5.2 net yards per pass attempt, 30th in the league and worst in the NFC. A lack of big plays is a problem: Chicago ranks last in yards per completion (9.0). Opportunities for big plays through the air could be there against New Orleans, which has allowed the sixth-most 30-plus yard pass plays (10) and the fifth-most yards per completion (12.7).

Inside Bears roster: Kyle Long’s season-ending injury may mean the end of his seven-year Bears run. The former Pro Bowl guard has suffered many injuries over the past four years, and the Bears already adjusted the 30-year-old’s through-2021 contract to expire after 2020. Were the Bears to release the second-generation NFL lineman next year, it would create $8.1 million in cap space. Veteran Ted Larsen, a backup battling a knee injury, or defensive tackle convert Rashaad Coward will start at right guard in Week 7.

Philadelphia (3-3) at Dallas (3-3), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Eagles numbers: The Eagles must be better in the secondary, which is allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (280.2) and has given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns (13). Philadelphia's poor secondary has made the pass rush look worse than it really is. The Eagles are ranked eighth in pressure rate (27.3 percent), but just 21st in sack rate (5.8 percent). Getting off to a quick start will be important against a Cowboys offense that has not scored a first-half touchdown in three straight games. 

Inside Eagles roster: Philadelphia’s beleaguered cornerback contingent will get help soon. Out since October 2018, fourth-year corner Jalen Mills returned to practice this week and is aiming to prove he can shake off a severe foot injury. Ronald Darby, who tore an ACL in 2018 and injured a hamstring in Week 3, also re-emerged at Eagles practice this week. Both will help, but are they enough to dissuade GM Howie Roseman from sacrificing draft capital to bolster this spot? The .500 team does not have long to evaluate this duo’s reliability before the Oct. 29 trade deadline.

Inside Cowboys numbers: The Cowboys need injured starters La'el Collins and Tyron Smith, who statuses remain uncertain, back on the O-line. With their elite tackle duo sidelined against the Jets, Dak Prescott was the most pressured quarterback of Week 6 (54.8 percent of dropbacks). Prescott did not have time to allow deep routes to develop, and he averaged a measly 9.9 yards per completion. He will need the time to make big plays against an Eagles defense allowing 12.2 yards per completion (10th worst). 

Inside Cowboys roster: Dallas has seen its major bets on homegrown talent lead to a 3-3 record. If the Cowboys are unable to beat the Eagles at home in a massive midseason game for both sides, it will be fair to wonder about the franchise’s trajectory. The Cowboys’ offseason extensions for Collins, Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith have them pushing Vikings levels of money commitment, and the impending Dak Prescott re-up will tether the team to its current nucleus. If that group starts 3-4 going into its bye week, the 10-year Jason Garrett run will likely be on borrowed time.

MONDAY

New England (6-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-4), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Patriots numbers: New England's defensive dominance has masked an offense that isn't fearsome. After scoring just 21 points at home on a Giants defense that entered the game ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA, New England is ranked an unusually low 10th in points per drive. It has not ranked that low in the category since placing 19th in 2003. That 2003 season is looking like a great model for this year's Patriots ⁠— despite the disappointing offensive production, New England won the Super Bowl on the strength of a dominant defense (No. 1 in points per drive). 

Inside Patriots roster: If New England does trade for a receiver, hopes of a different AFC Super Bowl representative could become grim. The Patriots have seen their top threats lose franchise quarterbacks (Colts and Steelers), drop two straight after more defensive problems surfaced (Chiefs), lose nearly half their starting lineup to injury (Chargers) and fail to live up to immense hype (Browns). Bill Belichick is not known for trade timidity. But with the conference disintegrating around them, the Pats may be able to get by as is.

Inside Jets numbers: Sam Darnold's presence makes the Jets a different football team. Over six games without him, the Jets were embarrassing offensively, posting a -18.3 point differential. With him, that point differential balloons to a more palatable -3.9, a boost of about two touchdowns. At the least, the Jets aim to continue their trend of competing closely with the Patriots at home. In their past six home contests against New England, the Jets have won twice (2013 and 2015), lost by one score three times, and lost by multiple scores once. 

Inside Jets roster: Darnold’s success came with the Jets having to further patch up their already limited offensive line, and the team will not make it easy on its centerpiece this week. Left tackle Kelvin Beachum is week-to-week with an ankle injury, and left guard Kelechi Osemele – a trade acquisition who made two Pro Bowls with the Raiders – will undergo season-ending surgery. Alex Lewis was already starting for Osemele, who will almost certainly be cut in 2020 to save the Jets $11.7 million. Brandon Shell, whom the Jets benched at right tackle, is a stopgap Beachum replacement.