
Everything on paper says that the New England Patriots should, and will, win against the New York Jets on primetime television. The AFC East-leading Patriots have touted one of the best complete offenses in the league, and their running defense is among the best in the NFL over the past decade.
But if the Jets were to pull off an upset beyond upsets, their running game — anchored by Breece Hall — needs to get going. That's where the Patriots need to focus their defensive efforts on, and that's how they'll leave Gillette Stadium with a victory.
In the nine games prior to last week, the Patriots didn't allow an opposing running back to surpass 50 yards in a single game. When Tampa Bay's Sean Tucker broke that number, he just registered 53. Though New England has shut down the likes of Alvin Kamara and James Cook and Bijan Robinson on the ground, Hall has found a second gear during New York's two-game winning streak. The back is up to 664 yards this season to go with his two touchdowns — both of which came in the Jets' first win of the season, the same game where Hall threw the game-winning touchdown.
New York's passing attack shouldn't scare many teams. Star wideout Garrett Wilson has been hampered with an injury that will keep him out for this game, and reportedly the next three, but quarterback Justin Fields hasn't look all too hot throwing the ball. The former first round selection is strong when he's carrying the ball and using his legs, but if the Patriots force him to throw the ball downfield, it will be easy pickings for a secondary that's been able to ballhawk against a number of teams to start the season.
"I think it's probably just the way that the game was going and the way that their defense was playing. I'm sure they were just doing everything that they could to find a way to win the football game and what they felt like was best," Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said earlier in the week, highlighting the Jets' slim passing numbers the game prior.
"Sometimes the games play out like that. It was raining. They're averaging over five yards of carry, a lot of explosive runs, whether that be with Breece or the quarterback. Obviously, the big play potential, so I'm not sure why they call what they call. But they made the one count, the 40-yarder to Hall, the screen play. So, those are all things that we'll have to try to defend, be able to tackle and certainly limit those space plays that Hall, when he gets into the second level, speed, but also his ability to make people miss," he continued
The Patriots will lean on their front seven, one of their calling cards on their seven-game win streak. The edge rushers (K'Lavon Chaisson, Harold Landry) have been solid at keeping passers in the pocket and now allowing them to slip out to make extended plays. The interior line, highlighted by Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga, have been stout against the run inside the tackles and should be able to limit Hall's production on Thursday Night Football.
"We have to make (Fields) try to get past his first read," Vrabel continued. "I think the O-line's done a nice job. I think they've played physical, they get into the line of scrimmage. There's a lot of things – that group's been a consistent group since the start of the year, and I think it's starting to show."
With a win, New England will improve to 9-2 on the year — the best record in the entire NFL. Prior to the season, these types of numbers (record-wise and stats-wise) would have been afterthoughts. But it's been something the team has been able to hang their hats on.
"It’s not always perfect," Vrabel said after last week's win against the Buccaneers. "It’s never going to be perfect. But I love the way that they compete. You’re going to have some time when if you strike out, you got to go to the dugout and be pissed for a couple of seconds, and then you got to go play the rest of the game."
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