Player prop TD futures to lock in before the NFL season kicks off

We've almost made it. In just over a week, the Bills and Rams will hit the turf, and the 2022 NFL season will officially begin.

We've sifted through many of the markets available to us, but one deserves a bit more attention: season-long touchdown totals. Available to bettors on DraftKings, there are a few names that look like solid value to exceed their set lines for touchdowns by season's end.

Trevor Lawrence over 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110 DK)

Trevor Lawrence had a rough rookie season, tossing 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, but really, did anything go right in Jacksonville?

Steeped in coaching drama and an incompetent offense, I'm willing to give Lawrence the benefit of the doubt as the "can't-miss" prospect he's been billed as for the past few years.

With Doug Pederson running the offense, there is a reasonable expectation for a jump in play from the former Clemson star. We'll highlight Carson Wentz as a parallel here.

While the 2016 Eagles didn't have the turmoil that the 2021 Jaguars did, Wentz had a so-so statistical year as a rookie, throwing 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. In Year 2, under Pederson, Wentz exploded for 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions in just 13 games played. 

A bet on Lawrence here is a bet on Pederson unlocking the best parts of Lawrence's game and giving him an offense that will lead to success. He's done it before.

The Jags added some nice pieces to their offense, headlined by Christian Kirk. Marvin Jones is a reliable second receiver, and Zay Jones offers some speed to the offense. While Evan Engram has had some issues with drops, he's still a fine tight end option.

Tack on the return to health of running back Travis Etienne, who caught eight touchdowns from Lawrence in their time together at Clemson, and this is a much better situation in Year Two.

AJ Dillon over 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-130 DK)

In AJ Dillon's second season, he tallied five rushing touchdowns for the Green Bay Packers. Dillon was tied for 10th in the NFL with 41 red zone carries, a role he will have once again in 2022.

Aaron Jones was still involved near the goal line with 33 carries, but Dillon's frame is well-suited to pound the ball in from close. Even without Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers should have this Packers offense operating efficiently, which means plenty of scoring chances.

We're opting for continued involvement and growth for Dillon and taking his over 5.5 rushing TD. Dillon had a pair of long runs last year, showcasing that he isn't just a one-trick pony but has an explosive element to his game as well.

Allen Robinson over 7.5 receiving touchdowns (+120 DK)

Matthew Stafford tossed 41 touchdowns last season in his first year with the Rams, which tied a career high set back in 2011. Sixteen of those went to Cooper Kupp, who feels bound for some slight regression of his historic season.

Nine touchdowns went to a combination of Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr., who are both no longer with the team.

In comes Allen Robinson, one of the most underappreciated receivers in the game thanks to the poor quality of quarterbacking he's suffered through in Chicago.

Taking on most of Woods' and OBJ's volume, and surely siphoning some away from Kupp, Robinson should easily be able to cross this 7.5 total.

Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-130 DK)

Dallas Goedert has been in the NFL for four seasons, all with Philadelphia. His touchdown totals in those years, starting in 2018: four, five, three and four.

As you may remember, Zach Ertz was the top tight end for the first three seasons of Goedert's career and was still on the team at the start of last year. In the past four seasons with the Eagles, Ertz accounted for 17 touchdowns.

This feels like an extremely reasonable line for a tight end as talented as Goedert, with the low bar to cross likely because of his past success and the addition of AJ Brown to the Philadelphia offense. While Brown should certainly command a large chunk of targets, there remains a prominent role for Goedert in this passing attack, and his 6-foot-5 frame will be utilized in the red zone.

Goedert should be on the field for nearly 100% of the offensive snaps, as the drop-off to TE2 on this roster is drastic. The volume will be there for Goedert to get us to this number, and it's one I'm betting.

Soon, we will be writing and reading touchdown props for that Sunday's game, action we can capitalize on immediately. Almost there!

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