We’re just over halfway through the 2025 NFL season, with Thursday Night Football kicking off Week 11 as we close in on the home stretch. Teams are seeing their last chances to change their playoff fortunes and players have one more push to make to enter serious contention for most major awards.

With that, I thought I’d look at some potential risers and fallers over the final eight weeks of the season. What teams, players, or units have been flying high and might come back down to earth the rest of the season? Or, alternatively, who’s been going a bit under the radar and is poised for a breakout? Let’s break it down:

Riser: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

I don’t think people realize just how good of a season Jackson is having. He did miss three games with a hamstring injury, and the Ravens got off to a very slow start. But in a relatively weak MVP field (the current frontrunners are Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Seahawks QB Sam Darnold, and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor), there’s a world where Jackson wins his third MVP this season.

In just six games, Jackson has 1,249 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. He’s completing passes at a 70.1-percent clip and has thrown just one interception on the season. On top of that, he’s added 216 yards and a touchdown on the ground. That is an absurd level of efficiency — Jackson is having one of the best seasons of his career, injuries aside.

Another thing in Jackson’s favor is the Ravens’ upcoming schedule. After starting 1-5 against an absolute gauntlet (Bills, Browns, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Rams) Baltimore has won three straight and has an appealing upcoming schedule. The Browns are on deck again Sunday before games against the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Packers, and Steelers.

That’s one of the easier remaining schedules in the league, which should help get the Ravens back into playoff contention and boost Jackson’s numbers. He may not be able to put up the raw counting stats needed to seriously compete for the MVP trophy given the three games he’s missed, but what he’s doing should not be overlooked.

Faller: San Francisco 49ers

This one is tough, because the 49ers are only really here due to injuries. The long list of Niners players out for the season is well documented, with LB Fred Warner and ED Nick Bosa topping that list, two of the best defensive players in the entire league.

It’s not just the guys done for the year, either. Starting QB Brock Purdy has only played in three games this year, though he’s set to return against the Cardinals on Sunday. Top WR Brandon Aiyuk has yet to make his season debut after suffering a serious knee injury last season. WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall have both missed time, as has LB Dee Winters. ED Bryce Huff, the team’s best pass rusher with Bosa out, had to miss a few games with a hamstring injury. And EDs Yetur Gross-Matos and rookie first-rounder Mykel Williams are both sitting on IR at the moment.

It’s so difficult for any team to overcome that many serious injuries. Credit to San Francisco for building a 6-4 record despite that, but the bill might be starting to come due. The Niners have a -10 point differential on the year, and their defensive numbers especially are suffering. They rank near the bottom of the league in total defense and EPA allowed, a predictable yet tough byproduct of all their injuries.

Given their schedule, the 49ers could build a competitive record in the coming weeks. They play the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, and Titans in their next four, and will likely be favored in all of them. They then close the season with the Colts, Bears, and Seahawks, a much tougher stretch. Still, this is a team that could sneak into the seventh seed in the NFC — but they shouldn’t be expected to seriously compete with any of the real contenders in their conference.

Riser: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 7-2 and tied for the best record in the NFC. So how could they rise even higher? Given how their first two losses came, this is arguably the most consistent team in the NFL. Los Angeles is the only team in the league to rank in the top five in EPA in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are elite on both sides of the ball, and more conventional numbers back that up too.

On offense, the Rams rank fifth in total offense, second in passing offense, and fifth in points per game. They have the best run blocking offensive line in the league and Stafford is lighting it up week after week, leading the league with 25 touchdown passes this season. On defense, the Rams rank 11th in total defense and second in points per game. They have the league’s best defensive line and an elite pass rush, able to close out games with their stars on defense.

The Rams’ two losses came as a result of the kicking game. The Eagles needed to block two field goals to win at home in Week 3, and a missed field goal at the end of regulation sent their first game against the 49ers to overtime, where they ultimately lost. Special teams is an important part of the game and those losses count, but when projecting forward, it’s hard to count on such fluky results on an otherwise great team.

Los Angeles will be tested down the stretch, with the Lions, Buccaneers, and two games against the Seahawks yet to come. Sunday’s home game against Seattle will be for the top team in the NFC midway through the season. But expect the Rams to continue their run of dominance and potentially finish with the best record in the NFL.

Faller: Pittsburgh Steelers

As Jackson and the Ravens rise, the Steelers might be set for a bit of a falloff. After starting 4-1 Pittsburgh is just 1-3 in their last four games, though that win came against a Colts team tied for the best record in the NFL. They built a big early lead in the AFC North due to the Ravens and Bengals starting slow, but now they sit just one game up on the Ravens with eight to go, including both head-to-head matchups.

On offense, the Steelers are struggling. Veteran QB Aaron Rodgers has the second-lowest average depth of target in the league, and the Pittsburgh offense can’t seem to push the ball down the field. The Steelers rank 29th in total offense, 30th in rushing offense, and 23rd in passing offense. That’s not sustainable for a playoff team.

With only one receiver that Rodgers trusts in D.K. Metcalf, the Steelers are running a lot of heavy personnel with two and sometimes three tight ends. That’s not leading to rushing success, however, as Pittsburgh’s offensive line is one of the lowest-graded units in the league. It puts Rodgers between a rock and a hard place, needing to get the ball out quickly but lacking the weapons to attack after the catch.

Riser: The Arizona Cardinals Defense

The Cardinals might not be the sexiest choice for this spot, as I doubt they’ll be able to climb back into playoff contention. But this is a team a lot better than their record, and I thought they deserved some recognition.

Despite being 3-6, the Cardinals have a -10 point differential — exactly the same as the 6-4 49ers. Arizona ranks 21st in total offense and 22nd in total defense. Those aren’t inspiring numbers, to be sure, but they are closer to the middle of the pack than a bottom dweller.

While some injuries on defense have sapped their strength, the Cardinals play hard on that side of the ball and have a lot of talent there. The offense has let them down, with starting QB Kyler Murray on IR and believed to have played his last down for Arizona. The efficiency numbers on offense are pretty bad.

And yet, they look good on defense. This is a team that creates a ton of pressure in their pass rush and doesn’t allow a ton on the ground. Second-round CB Will Johnson is a top-10 graded corner in football, per PFF, but he’s been a bit banged up this year. CB Max Melton has missed a few games as well, and slot CB Garrett Williams is back after missing some time himself. When healthy, Arizona has arguably the best trio of corners in the league, and that should shore up their pass defense down the stretch.

Faller: Chicago Bears

Second-year QB Caleb Williams is the highest-graded quarterback in the NFL over the last two weeks, so I could end up eating my words here. The Bears are 6-3 and are currently slated for a wildcard berth in the NFC on the back of a 6-1 stretch that includes multiple clutch performances from the offense and Williams specifically.

But some of the underlying metrics don’t love this team, especially on defense, and their schedule is about to get a lot harder. The Bears rank 27th in total defense and 28th in points allowed per game, with the EPA numbers indicating a particularly weak pass defense.

While new HC Ben Johnson has the offense humming, currently ranking third in total offense, they’re about to face a gauntlet of defense to close the season. Chicago goes up against the Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Packers, Browns, Packers, 49ers and Lions over the remainder of the season. They have four games against top seven defenses and just three against scoring defenses that rank outside the top 20.

If Johnson and Williams get it done against that schedule, then things really might be turning around in Chicago.