Realistic view of Jared Goff’s 2025 fantasy value is spreading like wildfire

At this point fantasy football managers know what they're getting with Jared Goff. There isn't really another locked-in quarterback around who offers so little as runner, and a dud is always in play if sufficient passing volume isn't there for him in a given week.

Goff's notable home-road/indoor-outdoor splits have slowly narrowed over the last three seasons, as noted by John Paulsen of 4for4, but the gap in production (fantasy and otherwise) still exists.

John Morton replacing Ben Johnson makes it easy to expect a downturn from Goff and the Lions' offense in 2025. But it's also a convenient narrative, to the point it's being overplayed. In another sense, the change in play caller demands a deeper dive into Goff's fantasy prospects for this year.

A segment of fantasy analysts have focused on a positive view of Goff for this year, or simply ignored any of the downside potential. In the teeth of draft season now, that narrative seems to be shifting.

The view of Jared Goff as a fantasy QB in 2025 is shifting

As of this writing, via Fantasy Pros, Goff is the 10th quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts, and he's going in the top-90 overall (7th-8th round in a 12-team league). With that in mind, Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus named Goff one of three quarterbacks to avoid in drafts, with a couple notes that can quickly become potential red flags.

"His 270.7 passing yards per game over the last two seasons are the most among all quarterbacks. His 18.0 PPR points per game, specifically from passing attempts, is the second-most among all quarterbacks."

In a bigger picture collaboration naming the 30 worst draft picks based on their current ADP, broken down by position, four of Fantasy Pros' experts had Goff as the quarterback they're avoiding.

The common thread for each of the four experts (Mike Fanelli of Fantasy Pros, Justin Frye of Pro Football Network, Andrew Erickson of Fantasy Pros and David Heilman of Sports Gambling Podcast Network) was the easily expected touchdown regression for Goff this year.

Goff's 6.9 percent passing touchdown rate last season was his career-best by a solid margin, and way above his career rate of 4.8 percent. With his entire fantasy value predicated on what he does throwing the ball, any notable touchdown regression would be a bad thing.

In his analysis, Heilman hit the ultimate point about Goff as a fantasy signal caller in this or any other year.

"He brings no rushing upside, and the floor can be low. Goff finished outside of the top-12 eight times in 2024, his best fantasy football season.”

To be fair, Goff has a good chance to finish as a top-12 fantasy quarterback this year. How he gets there is another matter, though, with boom weeks when you bench him, bust weeks when you start him, and generally not being very fun to have on a roster.

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