Three years ago, the New England Patriots went on their most impressive and surprising spending spree of the Bill Belichick era. They signed Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, Jalen Mills, Davon Godchaux, among cheaper ones. Some worked, some didn't, but owner Robert Kraft said at the time the utmost truth about free agency.
"Look, we're not going to know till the fall," Kraft said in 2021. "We always used to make fun of the people who won the headlines in March."
While it's important to use free agency as an avenue to build the roster, it rarely Works as the staple of a team, and overspenders usually regret these decisions. Now and over the next five to six months, executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf will have interesting decisions to make. The Patriots are third in cap space at the moment ($37.7 million) and they lead the NFL in projected cap space for 2025 ($132.8 million).
It's easy to fall into the trap of signing a bunch of free agents, and the Patriots would do it to some healthy degree. But the best way to exploit this type of situation is another one: Trades.
Usually in free agency, the big problem for teams is that they give great contracts for good players, good contracts for average players, and average contracts to below-average to bad players. For the Patriots, that creates an opportunity.
There are multiple examples every year of teams trading good players away for small draft compensation just to get rid of their contracts. The Miami Dolphins acquired cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams for a third-round pick and backup tight end Hunter Long. Amari Cooper went from the Dallas Cowboys to the Cleveland Browns for a fifth.
The best way to use cap resources is to be comfortable acquiring good players slightly overpaid because other teams are desperate to create space to make other moves.
Maybe the best current example of this scenario is cornerback Marshon Lattimore. He is slated to make $18 million in 2025 and $18.5 million in 2026. There are no guarantees left, but the New Orleans Saints would probably prefer to move him than to release him — sure enough, they can just do what they always do and keep kicking the can down the road, but they are getting closer and closer to the moment when this will be unfeasible.
For the Saints, it would be ok to trade Lattimore for a mid-round pick. And for the Patriots, acquiring a good player at a premium position for small draft compensation to take a heavy contract is realistic.
There are examples on offense as well, like wide receivers Calvin Ridley, whom the Patriots tried to sign in last year's free agency, and Jerry Jeudy. Maybe the teams won't end up moving them, but these are just examples of names for a phenomenon that happens every offseason.
The Patriots have draft capital and cap space to make moves. But taking advantage of other teams' bad situations is always a smart approach, and it usually generates positive outcomes.
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