The Spags Magic Number: The Threshold That Defines Chiefs

Since that Lions game to kick off 2022 season

Since the beginning of 2022, the Chiefs are 40-6 (.870) when allowing 22 points or less, including postseason. They’re 5-1 this season, their only loss a 20-17 setback in the Week 2 Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles.

And even more impressive over that stretch of 3½ seasons is the Chiefs’ ability to get better as the playoffs approach, in the back half of the year.

“We have been able to do that,” Spagnuolo said Thursday. “I hope that continues, because we do need to get better. I give all the credit to the to the assistant coaches and the players. I mean, you got to have coaches that feed it and keep working at it, which our guys do, and then you got to have cerebral players that embrace it, want to get better.”

Those coaches and cerebral players last year took it upon themselves to nail down the AFC’s only first-round bye and No. 1 seed. Over a five-game stretch from Weeks 13-17, the Chiefs allowed just 14.0 points per game, in turn allowing them to rest their starters for the season finale at Denver.

Chasing improvement

“We always talk about chasing improvement,” Spagnuolo added, “and that's what our guys do. Not every team has that, I don't think, but we're blessed that we got guys that think that way.”

They thought that way in 2023, when Kansas City incredibly allowed 22 points or less in 18 of its 20 games, including postseason. The Chiefs finished 14-4 in those games. Beginning with a 19-8 win over Denver, Kansas City averaged only 17.3 points allowed over its final 16 outings, including Super Bowl 58.

Kansas City’s .870 winning percentage isn’t even best in the league, either, showing that allowing more than 22 points is a league-wide harbinger. When allowing 22-or-fewer points, Detroit actually owns the league’s best mark in that stretch (27-2, .931). Buffalo (37-3, .925) is second, followed by Dallas (28-3, .903) and Philadelphia (39-5, .886).

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Chiefs are fifth. But with Denver’s elite defense, that 22-point threshold should factor heavily into Sunday’s game. Spagnuolo said keeping Bo Nix and Denver’s rhythm offense unsettled will be important, and to do that, he’ll have new wrinkles up his polo shirtsleeves.

“Yeah, I mean, as the season goes, we try to add because we feel like we can with our guys,” Spagnuolo said. “And I think you can only do that if you got trust in the guys are going to pick it up and do it. So, there was part of that.”

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