On Feb. 13, in a stinging 4-1 loss in Toronto against the Maple Leafs, Brandon Saad quietly played his 200th game for the franchise. The lack of fanfare is an ironic reflection of his entire tenure with the Blues, which has gone mostly unheralded and under-discussed. But upon closer examination, though the team has not thrived since he arrived in town, general manager Doug Armstrong’s decision to sign Saad when he did was a good one.
Stand-In for Schwartz
When Saad arrived in St. Louis, he joined a team in transition. Longtime top-six forward Jaden Schwartz was leaving to join the Seattle Kraken. Plus, the Blues were actively expecting to trade a disgruntled Vladimir Tarasenko, who had requested a move away from St. Louis earlier in the summer. Though Armstrong had just traded for Pavel Buchnevich, he believed the Blues would need additional depth. So he signed Saad to a five-year, $22.5 contract in free agency.
Best known for his two stretches with the Blues’ archrivals, the Chicago Blackhawks, Saad played the shortened 2020-21 season with the Colorado Avalanche. After a so-so regular season, where he scored 15 goals in 44 seasons, his best work came in the postseason, where he added seven goals in 10 games. Armstrong clearly believed that Saad could add scoring depth to a team that was about to lose (or so he assumed) two of its most significant contributors. And in the 2021-22 season, he would hit the ground running with one of the best seasons of his career.
Saad’s Scoring Stability
In his first season with the Blues, Saad hit the ground running and added 24 goals and 25 assists in 78 games. He was a great addition to the squad, but the Blues experienced an offensive explosion that eventually saw nine 20-plus goal scorers, so Saad blended into the scenery fairly quickly. But it was a big step ahead of Schwartz, who had only managed 21 points and eight goals in 40 games the season prior.
The following season (2022-23), the Blues offense crashed back down to earth, and Saad’s contributions were much more significant. He dropped to 37 points, but that climbed to sixth on the team, and his 19 goals ranked fourth. But attention was driven away from his dependable performance after Armstrong went public with comments about a rebuild. With fans focused on the franchise’s future, the then-30-year-old Saad was discussed less for his performance and more as a potential trade target.
This season, Saad is once again on pace to surpass 20 goals, though his plus-minus has dropped to minus-10. His defensive metrics are poor, but that is far from a unique on the current Blues’ roster. Essentially, he is still what the Blues hired him to be — a solid middle-six winger with scoring upside. In the often fraught world of NHL free agent signings, that’s a deal most general managers will gladly take. And there is still one way that he could provide immense value to the Blues if the pieces fall into place.
Saad on the Move?
Saad’s name first entered trade rumors in 2021-22, and since then, things have quieted down somewhat. But with this season and two more left on his contract at $4.5 million a season, and with the salary cap going up around the league, he could still be a surprise acquisition ahead of the deadline or in this upcoming offseason. There is always a market for 20-goal scorers, and with two Stanley Cup victories on his resume, some managers general are certain to covet Saad’s services as the “veteran presence” in their locker room. If Armstrong can swing a trade that delivers value for Saad and clears his remaining salary off the books, giving more space for the Blues youngsters to mature into the roster over the coming seasons, this will become one of the best free agent signings of Armstrong’s tenure.
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