With just 11 seconds left on Saturday, Timo Meier poked home a rebound and gave a subtle fist pump, trying to suppress his emotion after scoring a goal that had no impact on the final outcome. But he has every right to give himself a pat on the back – that goal marked his seventh in just the last five games.
There’s no denying it: his recent play has reminded us exactly why the New Jersey Devils inked him to a maximum eight-year, $70.4 million extension last offseason. Meier is back.
Effective Power Forward
In the Devils’ first round of the playoffs last season, Meier was unable to record a single point. Nobody really complained. Why? He was a menace all series, using his hard-nosed play style to effectively throw off the New York Rangers’ momentum on various occasions.
His 23 hits in the series led the team by a wide margin; Kevin Bahl was second with 15. His 66.52 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) were second to Nico Hischier. His on-ice 5.28 high-danger chances per game led the entire team as well. (via Natural Stat Trick)
That all equated to exactly what the Devils needed: someone who steps up when it matters and generates offense consistently without sacrificing physicality. This season, though, there’s been a strange regression—a newfound timidity in his play that can only be explained by injuries. Meier has suffered two of them, the first in November (undisclosed) and the second in January (mid-body).
On Thursday night, Meier told the ESPN broadcasters that he only started feeling healthy about ten games ago. Let’s take a look at the numbers…
It’s Timo Time
One of the Devils’ weakest facets is their physicality. Meier was supposed to take charge of that area but didn’t until recently. It makes sense if he wasn’t at 100 percent.
Before the point where he proclaimed he felt healthy, Meier made 55 hits in 40 games (1.38 hits per game). Since then, he’s made 21 hits in 11 games (1.90 hits per game). He had three on Saturday.
It doesn’t seem like a drastic difference, but it’s a ~38% increase. That’s indicative of a player who’s finally feeling like himself again. It’s not just the physicality department that’s seeing improvement, though. After scoring nine goals in his first 38 games, he doubled that total in just 12 games.
Over the last calendar month, Meier has performed at what would be a ~53-goal pace over a full season. The advanced numbers back up his play:
Until a month ago, Meier’s 46.87 xGF% was the worst of any lineup regulars, just behind Brendan Smith’s 47.78%. Since then, his 55.90 xGF% marks sixth-best and fourth amongst forwards. In other words, he’s clearly playing like a top-sixer again.
Interim Head coach Travis Green spoke to The Hockey Writers about his recent surge:
“He’s skating hard, he’s being physical. He’s being that power forward that he has to be. I think he’s been engaged with his physical play. When you have that kind of mindset, you’re going to be skating well. When (Meier) is skating, he’s hard to handle.”
– Travis Green
Proper Utilization
While, yes, injuries have played a large role, it’s tough to imagine that his utilization hasn’t played a factor either. When recently fired head coach Lindy Ruff was at the helm, Meier played mostly on the third line. On the occasion that he did play in the top six, it was typically short-lived.
Despite the injury struggles, players like Meier are too talented not to allow them to figure it out. Meier had not gotten that benefit of the doubt for a long stretch. Furthermore, despite scoring 17 powerplay goals last season, Meier has mostly been banished to the second unit – and under Ruff, it was sometimes neither.
Green seems to have no issue giving Meier that opportunity. He’s put Meier in the top six in all three games and elevated him to the top powerplay. He’s also played Meier on the right wing, where he primarily found success in San Jose. Ruff exclusively had him on the left wing.
When The Hockey Writers asked Meier about his confidence level, he took a humble team approach: “You want to win games. That’s what’s most important. Scoring goals gives you a good feeling, but it obviously sucks when you come out on the losing end. For me, I just keep working hard, and the bounces are gonna go (my) way.”
It’s no surprise that Meier has stayed even-keeled and as honest as anyone throughout his struggles (and the team’s as well). Now, he’s finally getting the results.
I’ll make a comparison to Dougie Hamilton. He was brought in as an elite offensive presence for the Devils, just like in Carolina. His first season as a Devil was injury-plagued and filled with mediocrity. He showed flashes but just couldn’t put it all together. He then exploded the next season and reminded everyone of exactly what he was paid the big bucks for.
Similarly, Meier has struggled in his first full season but is now starting to find his footing. I’d expect – barring health – that he finishes out the campaign strong and continues to help lead the charge for the Devils all of next season.
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