This was one of the more shocking trades today. After the Colorado Avalanche traded Ryan Johansen to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of the deal to acquire Sean Walker, they soon announced they were acquiring Casey Mittelstadt from the Buffalo Sabres for defenseman Bowen Byram. The trade was one-for-one.
Mittelstadt has become a competent second-line center over the last couple of seasons, something the Avalanche desperately needed to upgrade. Byram is a former top-five pick but has struggled in recent seasons and has injury concerns. There’s upside for the Sabres but also plenty of risk. Let’s grade how each side fared.
Avalanche Get a Much-Needed 2C Upgrade
Johansen wasn’t cutting it out as the Avalanche’s second-line center. He had just 13 goals and 23 points in 62 games, which is production akin to a bottom-six center. With Mittelstadt, the Avalanche will be getting an upgrade in that department. He has 14 goals and 47 points in 62 games, putting him on pace to finish with 19 tallies and 62 points.
Mittelstadt is an interesting player of sorts. He’s not much of a goal-scorer, but he is one of the better playmaking centers in the NHL. He’s averaging 1.61 assists per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and many of those have been primary assists.
The question I have with Mittelstadt is how sustainable are his numbers. Yes, this is the second season in a row he’s produced at this level, but he also has an on-ice shooting percentage of 12.47 percent in 2023-24. That means some of his success has been percentage-driven, which is a bit of a red flag.
However, when looking at his microstats, his passing data grades out pretty well. He ranks in the 84th percentile in primary assists, 91st percentile in rush shot assists, and 83rd percentile in high-danger passes, to name a few:
I think his production is sustainable, even with the high on-ice shooting percentage, since his passing metrics look solid. He seems like an upgrade on Johansen. I don’t think there’s really a question about that, and he will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning he’s under some team control. It might cost a bit to re-sign him, but he should fit into the Avalanche’s plans.
Giving up Byram seems like a steep price, but I don’t think he has the value he once did. A change of scenery may benefit him since he’s still in his early 20s, but the Avalanche look like they came out on the better side of this trade.
Avalanche Grade: B+
Sabres Taking Big Risk on Byram
The Sabres already have Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin on the left side. Mattias Samuelsson is a left-handed shot, too, so there are quite a few NHL-caliber lefties on their blue line. That’s why this is such a curious trade for the Sabres, but they also seem to be betting on the upside Byram had as a draft-eligible prospect.
That’s important to note because right now, Byram has been struggling. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakout after the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, but his impacts have taken a nosedive since then. Still, there’s a puck-moving defenseman somewhere there. The Sabres just have to find a way to unlock it.
Just a season ago, Byram’s microstats looked excellent. He was creating shots, his passing looked good, and he was effective in transition. As JFresh pointed out on Twitter, the opposite has happened with him this season. And his microstats have taken a turn for the worst:
Trading Mittelstadt also shows that the Sabres probably weren’t willing to pay him what he was looking for, so it made sense to move off him and try to get some value in return. But they need to find a way to help Byram get back on his feet. Perhaps playing in a sheltered, third-pair role with some of the team’s top forwards might be what the doctor ordered.
This is, for sure, a high-risk gamble for the Sabres. Byram has taken a step back, and injuries — specifically concussions — are a concern with him. I don’t doubt that there’s still a good player in him, but it’s not a guarantee he rebounds. Plus, with the injury concerns, there’s plenty that could go wrong. If it works, then the Sabres’ blue line could be terrifying. But if it doesn’t, they’ll have given up a capable second-line center that they could regret trading down the road.
Sabres Grade: B-
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