Special teams can often make the difference in a tight playoff series – and the New York Islanders need to figure things out come playoff time.
The first-round opponent is set with familiar division foe Carolina Hurricanes. The two last matched in a best-of-seven last April. In the entire series, the Islanders’ power play registered just one goal on 18 attempts. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes scored five goals with the man advantage. Losing the special team’s battle that badly was one of the critical elements that sent the blue and orange early.
Special Teams Stats and Dobson Injury
Based on what we saw in the regular season for 2023-24, special teams might still be a struggle. The penalty kill for the Islanders ranks dead last in the NHL, while the power play is 21st. That’s a massive advantage for the Hurricanes, who hold first and second-ranked units respectively.
The penalty kill is without question a disaster – but perhaps superb goaltending, which the Islanders have been getting as of late can provide a boost to the unit.
While the power play registered a goal against the New Jersey Devils on Monday, the unit went zero for their last 12 attempts ahead of the game. Particularly, it looked pathetic against the President Trophy-winning New York Rangers on Saturday. At five-on-four, the Islanders generated just 23 percent of the expected goals share, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Of course, Noah Dobson missing time hurts – but the power play never should look that poorly. That said, if the Canadian defenseman is forced to miss time, the Islanders could be in big trouble on special teams. On the other hand, Mike Reilly could provide a spark playing on the top power-play unit. The Illinois native has generated just two fewer shots than Dobson has this year in about 137 minutes less with the man advantage. At this point, giving him an extended look at the first power play might not provide much downside.
Can Five-On-Five Play Offset?
Luckily for the Islanders, things are working a little better at even strength. At five-on-five, the goal differential for the team is 0.1 – good for 15th in the league, according to data from MoneyPuck. Particularly, the Islanders do a good job of keeping the puck out of their net, ranking ninth in goals against per 60 minutes.
To make things even better, goaltending has been elite lately. Semyon Varlamov in his last four games has averaged a .931 save percentage. Ilya Sorokin, in his last three starts, has been phenomenal as well, registering .947, .926, and .953 save percentages.
However, the results haven’t been as stellar when it comes to the team’s underlying metrics. At five-on-five, the Islanders rank 24th in Corsi for percentage and 19th in expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, rank first and second in both categories. So it’s not solely special teams working well for the Hurricanes.
But the Islanders must find a way to manage on special teams. They cannot afford to get outscored five-to-one again in a playoff series. The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the NHL, and there will be large stretches where the Islanders get pinned in their own zone.
Regardless, the penalty kill is likely to have a rough time – and it will be up to the power play to help offset things rather than just five-on-five. If the Islanders can do that – they have a legitimate shot to compete in the series. If not, well, at least the Islanders still have their first-round draft pick.
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