There haven’t been many bright spots with the New York Islanders this offseason – but that shouldn’t stop the organization from keeping what’s working. One of those is their analytics darling, who happens to be on an expiring contract – and that’s Mike Reilly.
The Case For Reilly
While he may not be on the same level as Noah Dobson, the defenseman has thrived this season in his role on the third pair. In fact, Reilly ranks first among all Islanders players in expected goals (XG) at 56.51 percent, according to Natural Stat Trick. Also, he clocks in first among defensemen and fourth in the team in Corsi for percentage (CF%).
Simply put, when Reilly is on the ice, the team creates scoring opportunities and dominates possession. Particularly, some of Reilly’s strongest attributes this season have been retrieving and moving the puck up the ice, according to hockey analytics from Andy & Rono.
Of course, head coach Patrick Roy and his staff deserve credit for putting Reilly in positions to succeed. Mainly, the Chicago, Illinois native has played with Sebastian Aho. In about 340 minutes together this season, the pairing has controlled 56.45 percent of the XG share. With Scott Mayfield, the results haven’t been nearly the same. That pairing has posted just 49.88 percent of the XGs share in 187 minutes. So matchups and who Reilly plays with matter for success.
As far as the score sheet goes, the 30-year-old has produced 18 points in 50 games in 2023-24. That’s perfectly respectable for the role he plays.
Reilly’s Journey to This Point
Reilly’s NHL career began after he signed with the Minnesota Wild as a promising college free agent in 2015. However, he didn’t even last three seasons with the organization until he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens for a fifth-round pick. Since then, Reilly has been a journeyman defenseman, struggling to find a permanent home.
In the past six seasons, the former fourth-round pick has played for five different NHL organizations. In 2021, he signed a three-year, $9 million contract with the Boston Bruins. The defenseman was bought out this summer and then was given a one-year $1 million deal with the Florida Panthers for this season. However, he only played two games and was placed on waivers in November – leading the Islanders to swoop in to claim him.
And so far, the move has worked out. So why not re-sign him? He likely won’t be expensive and perhaps the Islanders can get him on the same $1 million AAV he was claimed at. And they should act before Reilly gets to the open market.
Islanders Need to Make Other Savvy Moves
Meanwhile, the only catch is the team only has $6.8 million in cap space to work with for next season. Unless a contract gets moved, they need to be diligent and savvy with other additions in the offseason. While the Islanders can’t enter a full rebuild, some kind of a core shakeup is needed after what looks like the team will miss the playoffs for the second time in the past three years.
Maybe that’s signing a free agent who will take a cheap one-year prove-it deal like Anthony Duclair, who would fill the speed void issue on the wing. Or perhaps the ideal scoring winger becomes available via trade. But at least some changes need to be made. In 2023-24, the Islanders rank 25th in CF, 19th in XGs, and dead-last in the league in penalty killing.
But that does not mean you get rid of the pieces that are working. The Islanders should make it a priority to sign Reilly because of the low risk it comes with. As of now, Reilly is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1.
Other Islanders players on expiring contracts include lower-tier players such as Robert Bortuzzo, Sebastian Aho, Cal Clutterbuck, and Matt Martin. Oliver Wahlstrom, Simon Holmstrom, and Kyle MacLean are scheduled to be restricted free agents and under team control.
The Hockey Writers reached out to Reilly’s agent Pat Brisson for comment.
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