This continued in pro hockey (AHL) as well:

• DY + 3 in AHL (Age 20-21): 47 points in 70 games (0.67 P/GP)
• DY + 4 in AHL (Age 21-22): 77 points in 71 games (1.08 P/GP)

Bourque’s 2024-25 season:

• DY + 5 in NHL (Age 22-23): 25 points in 73 games (0.34 P/GP)

It’s a clear pattern of growth and elite production at each level, which signifies great potential for NHL success.

Bourque in the NHL

Bourque’s most common lines as a rookie this year were split between Jamie Benn + Wyatt Johnston (79 mins) and Colin Blackwell + Oskar Back (77 mins). This means that in Bourque’s most-used situations, he’s a bottom-six rookie. Dallas’ depth and interest in Johnston at centre allowed Bourque to play with an exceptional young player who played as the team’s third-line centre, and Bourque’s ability to play with skilled young players bodes well for a potential transition to Calgary.

Looking at 5v5 line statistics via Natural Stat Trick, with Benn/Johnston, their line struggled and was below 50% in most shot-related statistics, but Johnston + Bourque without Benn have great numbers. 

The Johnston/Bourque combo without Benn was at 55% shot attempts, 55% shots on goal, and 61% of the Expected Goals when together, as opposed to 47%, 44%, and 48% when Benn plays with the duo. Furthermore, Benn/Johnston without Bourque was at 45%, 48%, 49%. One could infer from this data that Bourque is able to find chemistry with young high-skill players.

Similarly, Bourque elevated the Dallas Stars’ fourth line for shot generation, where Back-Bourque-Blackwell had 61% of shot attempts, 55% of shots on goal, and 59% Expected Goals when together. Without Bourque, Blackwell/Back were at 51%, 47%, and 46%. This is a significant drop-off for the fourth line compared to when Bourque plays.

Overall, this means that Bourque’s NHL impact is significant as a rookie. Bourque contributed to the Dallas Stars’ fourth line’s strong metrics and played well with Wyatt Johnston (while Jamie Benn did not). When Benn/Johnston and Blackwell/Back did not play with Bourque, they were considerably worse on the shot front. This is great fuel for the Bourque offer sheet idea since he doesn’t have a glossy reputation coming out of this year, even among Dallas Stars writers I’ve spoken with.

This is the kind of player you try to acquire, taking advantage of their underwhelming present-day value but betting on the significant track record.

Expected contract vs. offer sheet compensation

According to AFP Contract Projections, Mavrik Bourque is projected to earn a bridge deal (2 x ~$1.9 million). 

For a Dallas Stars team that gave Wyatt Johnston $8.4 million and Mikko Rantanen $12 million, the current form of Mavrik Bourque needs to be in a certain price range to be worth keeping. Dallas has ~$12.9 million in cap space for 2025-26 with only 8 forwards, 6 defenders, and 2 goalies signed (with Benn, Granlund, Duchene, Dadonov, Bourque, Blackwell, Ceci and Smith unsigned). I can see Dallas using that space for guys like Benn and Duchene, with minimal money available for the lineup margins, meaning any pressure from outside teams on a guy like Bourque might make Dallas part with the player.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi was given $6 million and has now been a full-time NHLer for Carolina since the offer sheet, regardless of his impact at the time of the offer sheet. Calgary could offer Mavrik Bourque the following contract and pay the resulting compensation should Bourque accept and Dallas not match the offer:

1 year x $4.1 million

Compensation: 2026 second round pick

It needs to be enough money to dissuade Dallas from matching, but it may be hard to justify paying Bourque higher than players like Mantha, Sharangovich, Frost, etc. so I understand the human part of contract rankings. However, in a year’s time, when Mavrik Bourque can sign a Calgary-initiated contract post-offer sheet and is protected in Calgary as an RFA, this is the window I’m playing for, and the higher AAV for Bourque on a short-term offer sheet is simply an expense toward building a contending lineup for the long term.

Are the Dallas Stars going to bother with the hassle of finding more cap space for Mavrik Bourque? We should be trying to give teams those unnecessary headaches to force them to move on from young players that could benefit us in a few years.

Of note, we are avoiding a future sunk cost with a 1-year deal. This contract is basically a year-long tryout for a young player. 

If Bourque plays well, maybe he earns a deal. 

If Bourque stagnates or plays average, maybe he gets a cheap short-term deal as an RFA but still plays NHL games for Calgary. 

If Bourque is awful, Calgary may choose not to offer the player a contract and let him go to free agency at the expense of a 2nd round pick and a year’s effort of development. 

Greater swings have been taken in the past by NHL franchises, who have sometimes been left with 6+ years of high-ticket prices to pay for underwhelming forwards they locked in with hopes of the player reaching their potential. This idea for Bourque seems like a safe swing to take.

Debunking concerns

Qualifying offer

When discussing an offer sheet with hockey media members, a primary concern was Bourque’s qualifying offer at the end of the contract and having to pay ~$4 million again for this player. The way that Carolina operated with Jesperi Kotkaniemi was to sign a contract before the end of the season (Mar. 21st, 2022), where they went 8 x $4.82 million. Regardless of what you think of Kotkaniemi talent-wise, Carolina acquired an NHL talent for a first and a third. With this in mind, the proposed offer above both handicaps Dallas to hopefully force their hand and is less for the Flames to give up asset-wise for a young NHL centre.

Scratched in the playoffs

As a NHL rookie, getting scratched in the playoffs is not a surprise, and Bourque being a smaller skill-oriented rookie has been unsurprisingly scratched for physicality-oriented forwards, but it’s something to note. Bourque may be in a tier below the likes of Connor Zary, Morgan Frost, etc. if coaches don’t feel comfortable yet to put him on the wing in the middle-six and have chosen to scratch him if the only deployment option is to play on the fourth line. Speculation is dangerous here, considering the player’s junior and AHL pro track record, but I wanted to make note of it since Bourque is not being deployed by the Dallas Stars in the playoffs as a 25-point rookie.

Conclusion

When looking for ways to improve the Flames for the long-term, there may be free agents available this off-season to achieve that goal. However, there may be a unique opportunity here to grab a 23-year-old slow-developing NHL player who was the AHL MVP two seasons ago. Bourque may be at his lowest NHL value, which translates to an easier offer sheet price to swallow in Calgary’s perspective.

When the Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg offer sheet news came out, the hockey community was divided, with some thinking that it was a huge overpay for two players who could not keep up in the NHL at the time. Even if Mavrik Bourque isn’t an attractive option today, there are many reasons for Calgary to feel comfortable with this type of investment. 

Most full-time NHLers have had success in all levels of hockey before pro. Bourque was operating at 2 points per game in his 19-year-old junior hockey season, and won AHL MVP at 22 years of age. This is your middle-six centre who can play alongside the younger skilled players (Zary, Frost, etc.). 

Playoff teams like St. Louis and Washington have built their depth out of players who were once considered “non-solutions” or “throwaways”. I believe it’s time for Calgary to take some calculated swings at untapped potential that won’t cost them an arm and a leg.

We’re not asking Mavrik Bourque to be a “solution.” Dustin Wolf and Zayne Parekh might be those types of game-changing players. The expectation for Bourque in this scenario is to support the strong skill-oriented foundation being built in Calgary.

The opportunity cost of this offer sheet idea is a second round pick. What is Bourque worth in a trade to you? Is it more than a second?

It’s time to get creative to support a growing young Calgary Flames core for next year’s playoff push.