The Florida Panthers pushed the Toronto Maple Leafs to the brink of elimination following a 6-1 victory on Wednesday, May 14. The Panthers hold a 3-2 series lead in the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs and can advance to the Eastern Conference Final for a third consecutive postseason with a win on Friday (May 16).
The Maple Leafs have lost three consecutive games, a feat that occurred only four times during the 2024-25 regular season. If it provides any solace going into a must-win Game 6, the team still hasn’t lost four games in a row under head coach Craig Berube. However, the Maple Leafs’ offensive struggles aren’t a new problem, especially when it comes to the playoffs.
Lack of Postseason Offence
Since the 2017 Playoffs, the Maple Leafs rank 21st of 30 teams in goals per game (2.69) despite appearing in the 11th-most contests (68). Over that span, Toronto sits 13th in shots per game and 20th in power-play efficiency (17.9 percent). After scoring one goal in the last two games against the Panthers, Toronto has slipped to eighth in the league with 3.00 goals per game in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
However, it gets far more concerning when looking at the underlying numbers. The Maple Leafs own the worst expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in the 2025 Postseason at 1.97. The other 15 playoff participants are at least at 2.00, while the Edmonton Oilers (3.4) and Colorado Avalanche (3.33) are at the top of the pack. The Maple Leafs also sit last in the playoffs in scoring chances per 60 (SCF/60) and high-danger scoring chances per 60 (HDCF/60).
Bobrovsky’s Bounce Back
The Panthers have outscored the Leafs by an 8-1 margin in the last two games of the 2025 Postseason. Sergei Bobrovsky had a shutout streak of 143:25 before Nicholas Robertson got Toronto on the board at the 18:54 mark of the third period in Wednesday’s defeat. Bobrovsky established a new franchise record, surpassing John Vanbiesbrouck’s goalless span of 141:31 during the 1996 Playoffs.
Bobrovsky allowed 13 goals on 81 shots in the first three games of the Panthers’ second-round series versus the Maple Leafs. However, he nearly posted two straight shutouts to help Florida regain control of the matchup. He looks as dominant as he did during a five-game series win over Toronto in 2023 when he permitted only 10 goals on 174 shots.
Toronto Struggling to Match Florida’s Scoring Depth
Toronto has received goals from nine players in Round 2, while five skaters have earned at least four points. Despite recording a team-high 20 shots on goal, Auston Matthews hasn’t lit the lamp versus the Panthers, and the late-series struggles of Mitch Marner are coming into focus again.
Bobrovsky’s play has improved substantially, but the scoring depth of the Panthers has led the way in the series. The club has 15 different goal scorers, and nine players have earned at least four points through five games versus the Maple Leafs.
Getting Power Play Back on Track
After scoring six times on 17 opportunities in six outings versus the Ottawa Senators in the opening round, Toronto has two power-play goals on 18 chances in Round 2 against the Panthers.
The Maple Leafs have been held off the scoresheet on six power plays over the last two games. Florida has made adjustments by pressuring Toronto’s five-forward group all over the ice. The Maple Leafs need faster, crisper puck movement to get in sync. The team’s success in Round 1 came from quick plays and funnelling the puck to the net. Barring more decisiveness, some personnel changes could occur in Game 6. Still, putting a blueliner on the top unit may not be enough to get the job done.
Stars Need to Step Up
That brings us to the crux of the problem. The best players on the team need to be better, and it is more noticeable than it should be when they aren’t producing because management has never properly addressed the roster’s depth-scoring issues. When John Tavares isn’t scoring around the net, Marner isn’t making plays, Matthews isn’t ripping shots under the bar, and Nylander isn’t burying his rush chances, the odds of winning decrease substantially because other players frequently don’t pick up the slack. They unquestionably need to score, and the criticism of their struggles as a series reaches the elimination stage is warranted. However, these problems aren’t new and have continued to go unchecked for a while.
There should’ve been changes when the Maple Leafs scored 10 goals in five games against the Panthers in 2023 or when 12 goals were tallied in seven contests versus the Boston Bruins in 2024. If you want to go back even further, the Leafs didn’t generate much offensively in late-series matches against the Washington Capitals in 2017, the Bruins in 2019, the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2020, and the Montreal Canadiens in 2021. The supporting cast should change because it hasn’t gotten the job done, but the core group will also need alterations if they remain ineffective in 2025 and the Maple Leafs get bounced from the playoffs early again.
What Adjustments Should Be Made for Game 6?
The Maple Leafs put Robertson and David Kampf in the lineup for Game 5, removing Calle Jarnkrok and Pontus Holmberg. Robertson proved he can contribute offensively, ending Bobrovsky’s shutout spree, but Toronto needs more to avoid being eliminated by the Panthers. Perhaps a top-six shakeup is in order, with Nylander joining Matthews and Matthew Knies on the first line and Marner skating alongside Tavares. Toronto could benefit from making Florida switch-up matchups while freeing up Marner and granting Matthews a boost with Nylander’s explosiveness.
It’s baffling that the Maple Leafs possess this much offensive firepower but tend to play a more passive defensive style while supplementing the group with players that fit that mould. The team needs to embrace an attack-oriented mindset now and in the future.
Analytics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
More must-reads: