NHL best bets: Four plays for Monday 3/6
A new week in the NHL brings with it one of the highest over/unders we've ever seen, an opportunity for revenge, and a whole bunch of good prices. Here's four props to set our week in motion.
Dylan Cozens over 2.5 SOG (+100 DK) & Cozens point (-118 FD)
Buffalo and Edmonton should both be ripping shots and scoring goals tonight, and I'm drawn to the price for Dylan Cozens to get in on the fun.
Cozens has emerged as a real playmaker for the Sabres this year, and he's been a force on home ice lately, going over 2.5 shots in three of his last four and twice seeing some big outputs of five and eight SOG. The bump up to the top power play has certainly played a factor, and Edmonton offers a chance for those situations to present themselves aplenty.
The points have accompanied the shots, with five in his last three home games. He has three points in three games against the Oilers, and with an over/under up at 7.5, I'm looking to grab any value I can on those props.
Kyle Connor 3+ shots & Alex DeBrincat point (+114 FD)
This is a relatively simple combination, and to see it come in at plus-money is good enough for me. Winnipeg should most definitely be able to find themselves some shots.
San Jose is allowing over 33 shots per game on the road over their last 10, and after trading players like Timo Meier and Mikey Eyssimont it's likely going to become even harder for the Sharks to control offensive possession.
So, couple that with a penalty issue out of San Jose, and I'd like a share of someone on Winnipeg shooting the puck. Perhaps I'm being too conservative, but I'm rolling with Kyle Connor but watered down to 3+ shots instead of line tonight at 3.5.
I don't hate him at the 3.5 number, I just really love him down at 2.5. Connor leads the Jets in power play shooting and has gone for three or more SOG in seven straight home games. On the year, he gets to three at a 72% clip on home ice. Against the Sharks, Connor has 3+ shots in six of his last seven, and has 4+ in three of his last four.
His dance partner tonight is Alex DeBrincat to grab a point in his first game back in Chicago. It's a simple narrative, but Ottawa should dominate the Blackhawks, and you have to believe DeBrincat would like to be involved in a goal against his former team.
He has a point in five straight games and grabbed an assist vs. Chicago back in February.
Darnell Nurse 3+ shots (+152 FD)
We need to head back to that Edmonton-Buffalo game and grab us an Oilers shooter, and I absolutely love the value we have with Darnell Nurse at his alternate SOG line.
Nurse has gone for 3+ shots in six of his last eight on the road and has loved facing Buffalo. In his last three against the Sabres, Nurse has finished with shot totals of three, five and seven. He has gone over 2.5 in four of his last five against them, and seeing as Buffalo is allowing the third-most shots to defensemen over the last 10 games, I'm all over Nurse at this price.
I don't think you can go wrong in this game, and similarly to Cozens, I could see some merit to loading up Nurse to get a point as his road shot consistency has aided a steady dose of points.
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