NHL best bets: Four plus-money SOG bets for Thursday 4/6
Last night's plays didn't quite deliver, but it's a new day, and on a packed night of NHL action, there's plenty to like across the board. As we've tried doing all week, our focus remains on plus-money plays, and we've got four of them for this evening.
Jesper Bratt over 2.5 SOG (+100 MGM)
New Jersey should have no issue getting shots off. Columbus is allowing 38 shots per game on the road over the last 10, and the Devils have finished with shot totals of 32 and 53 in the first two meetings this season.
I'm drawn to Jesper Bratt despite him failing to go over this total in six straight games. For starters, Bratt has racked up some big games against Columbus lately. He's over 2.5 SOG in five straight meetings, scoring three goals.
Bratt has logged five shot attempts in two straight games and seven of his last 10 at home. He's averaged 5.8 attempts/game against Columbus over the past two seasons, which gives me the confidence to project 5+ shot attempts from the Devils winger.
This season, when Bratt registers 5+ attempts, he's over at a 68% rate. At even-money and given how weak of an opponent is opposite him, I'm jumping in.
Brent Burns 4+ shots (+172 FD)
I'm skipping right past Brent Burns's 2.5 line and going for the 4+ here. Carolina should be able to get close to their 35.9 shots/game road average against Nashville, especially with the Predators' proclivity for penalties.
Burns is second on the team in PP shots over the last 20 days, and Nashville has allowed the fifth-most shots to defensemen in their last 10 games.
Burns has been ripping attempts lately, compiling 43 in his past four games, leading to 15 SOG. In an earlier meeting with Nashville, Burns finished with six SOG on 10 attempts and has averaged 7.3 attempts/game against the Predators over the past two seasons.
If for a moment we project Burns to find 7+ attempts once again, we see a man going over his 2.5 line in 79% of games this season, finishing with 4+ in 61% of the 38 games sampled. That rate, coupled with this situation, has me loving the price for Burns to find four SOG.
Valeri Nichushkin over 3.5 SOG (+112 FD)
Nichushkin is absolutely rolling, I see no reason to not follow the streak in an inviting matchup at plus-money. Nichushkin has now gone over 3.5 shots in six straight games, which includes six shots against the Sharks on Tuesday.
It's hard to see whaat has changed, there's every reason to expect another big game from Nichushkin. San Jose is allowing 33.6 shots per game at home, and Colorado is well-motivated to push the pace and win this one as the regular season wraps up.
Jared McCann over 3.5 SOG (+104 FD)
Let's go right back to McCann, albeit with odds not quite as good as what we had a few nights ago. McCann is here because Arizona is a great shot target, made better by how many power plays they've been handing out.
McCann is the power play shot leader for Seattle and finished with seven SOG against Arizona just three days ago. He's averaging 7.8 attempts/game in his past five home games, and as you may have guessed, volume like that has tended to deliver more big games than not for McCann.
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