NHL best bets: Three bets for Wednesday's small slate
It's been a middling week thus far in the NHL, and I don't know about you, but I'd like to find far more winners than losers tonight. On a three-game slate that doesn't offer a ton of tremendous spots, we keep it simple with three plays.
Elias Pettersson goal (+112 FD) & JT Miller goal (+166 FD)
When in doubt, bet against the Ducks. Over the past 10 games, Anaheim has allowed 4.1 goals per game, the third-highest mark in the league. That vulnerability very much remains on the road, as does their poor defense allowing a bevy of shots on goal.
Vancouver has sported a respectable offense of late, averaging 3.2 goals per game in their last 10 at home and scoring 4+ goals in three of their last four games.
It's there we look tonight, and by all means opt for simplicity and roll with the Canucks over 3.5 goals, but I prefer looking to a few players in particular. Beyond the team averages, there does appear to be a power play edge favoring Vancouver here. That is birthed far more from Anaheim's deficiencies than anything Vancouver has done, but the Canucks owning a 22.2% PP rate over the last 20 days is respectable. The Ducks penalty kill rate of 71.4% is one of the lowest, and the problem is compounded by handing out 3.5 power-play opportunities per game.
So, who to bet on? The picks are relatively simple to me, we're opting for two of the highest-volume and most consistent players the Canucks have to offer: Elias Pettersson and JT Miller.
Both men are on the top power play and center the top two lines. Pettersson has a goal in two straight games and two straight against the Ducks. Earlier this year, Pettersson put up eight SOG and five points on Anaheim. He has a goal in four of his last six against the Ducks.
JT Miller is the clear best option for shots on goal tonight, but his prop is far too juiced to play standalone. He's shooting at quite the clip, and that volume should bring with it goals in inviting spots such as this. Miller has three goals in his last five meetings with Anaheim.
.5u: Moritz Seider point (-112 FD)
Surely there's no way that Chicago has a second straight shutout win, right? Right??
It feels very much unlikely, especially on the road where the Blackhawks are allowing 3.8 goals per game over their past 10. It's a nice opportunity for Detroit to find something, and of the available options, defensemen Moritz Seider is the best value I see.
Seider is on the top defensemen pairing and the top power play for the Red Wings, and he has two points in his last three games. The bigger appeal is most definitely his production at home, where he's racked up 12 points in his last 13 games.
Seider has a point in two of three career games against Chicago, and his shots have been quite steady which could conceivably help him get involved here tonight. Bumping this down to a half-unit simply because Seider tends to go long stretches without a point, and these odds are not fair market value for how he's produced on the season as a whole.
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