NHL Best Bets: Three NHL prop plays for Tuesday 2/28
While we netted even on the day here yesterday, it sure would be a lot better to get back to some steady article success on the ice. That starts tonight with a patient and concerted effort to circle some of the best value spots on the board. Three such players have made the cut here for tonight in the NHL.
Andrei Vasilevskiy over 29.5 saves (-122 FD)
Why don't we get our bets started with the lone approach that paid off last night? The saves market has been fun. I've watched from afar for awhile, but it offers a tremendous alternative to betting an individual's shots on goal, and in this case, the Andrei Vasilkevskiy's saves angle saves us a whole lot of deliberating.
The deliberation is born from the Florida end, where basically every single available player you could bet on looks good for shots. It helps when you lead the NHL in shots per game at 36.6, a number that dips just a bit on the road to 34.5/game.
If I'm betting a saves line, I have to feel confident that they can stop the puck and not get forced out of the game because of an onslaught of shots. Vasi is one of the NHL's best, so that fear is alleviated, and when these two meet, the shots tend to flow.
That's evidenced no more than with a look at Vasilevskiy's last two seasons against the Panthers. In 10 matchups, he's averaging 34.3 saves per game, going over tonight's 29.5 line in seven of his last eight meetings. Tampa has had some looser evenings of late and I like that to continue here against a high-flying offense pushing for a playoff spot.
Jordan Kyrou goal (+165 DK)
I like St. Louis to find some goals here tonight at home. The Blues have dropped five straight games in the midst of their fire sale, but the dust is finally settling. The Kraken, and more importantly Martin Jones, offers a tremendous opportunity to get back to scoring some goals, and Jordan Kyrou is the man to do it.
Seattle is allowing 3.5 goals per game over their past 10 on the road, and Martin Jones has allowed 4+ goals in four straight starts, including five straight on the road.
This is a man we can target, and Kyrou is basically the entirety of St. Louis's offense at this point. He so far and ahead leads this team in shot attempts over their past five games, and despite that has no goals to show for it.
This is to me a man who is due, and in a game I like the Blues, let's follow that read. For good measure, Kyrou has netted a goal in three straight games against the Kraken.
Thomas Novak
.5u: Novak point (+100 PointsBet).25u: Novak goal (+320 FD).25u: Novak power play point (+490 FD)
Taking an alternative approach to Thomas Novak, a man who will surely fizzle out at some point but right now is on one of those runs where you need to just ride the wave, especially if he delivered for you on Sunday.
This is your classic case of a sportsbook failing to grasp that a situation has changed. With Filip Forsberg injured and Nino Niederreiter traded, Novak slotted up to the Nashville top line, and he's been producing like a madman.
Over his last five games, Novak has racked up 11 points, five of which are goals, and three have come on the power play.
I'm spreading the net and taking a bit of everything (besides assists), and the love for his goal is born from seeing that the Penguins are allowing the most shots per game to centers over the past 10.
There's also an on-paper power-play edge for the Predators here, who have scored on the power play at a 30.8% clip over the last 20 days. That matches up well with a Pittsburgh PK that ranks as one of the league's worst over the same stretch.
Conceivably, we could cash all three of these bets on just one power- play goal. I sure wouldn't be opposed.
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