NHL best bets: Three player prop targets for Monday, Dec. 11
We had us a solid Saturday here of SOG looks, and it's in that market we stay for tonight in the NHL. There's only four games, but two in particular are looking great for some player props.
JJ Peterka & Casey Mittelstadt
There are some far more obvious names for shots on the Buffalo end tonight. Rasmus Dahlin and Jeff Skinner are both rolling with their shots and attempts and have nice history against Arizona. By all means, I get it and support it, I just want to deviate off the obvious and look elsewhere in this inviting matchup for the Sabres.
Arizona is allowing nearly 35 shots per game on the road over the past month and the ninth-most shots per game overall this year. At home, Buffalo is averaging the 10th-most shots on goal per game in the league, they should find room to operate tonight.
I'm intrigued by JJ Peterka's consistency and Casey Mittelstadt's recent uptick in shot attempts, so I'm pairing them together.
Mittelstadt's uptick is relatively straightforward. He's taking Alex Tuch's spot as top-line center. In the three games in such a role emerged, Mittelstadt has eight SOG on 13 attempts, all of which have come in the two home games. He's finished with three SOG in two straight meetings with Arizona.
Peterka has been steady this year for the Sabres. He's hit 2+ shots in 18 of the past 20 games, averaging 3.86 SOG/game on 6.43 attempts/game over his last seven. He has 2+ shots in eight of his last nine at home, with 3+ in four of his last five.
Here's how I'll be playing these two.
- 1u: 2+ shots each (-111 FanDuel)
- .5u: 3+ shots each (+333 FD)
Auston Matthews over 4.5 SOG (+110 FD)
Auston Matthews has gone over this line in only two of 11 road games and nine of 24 games on the season, so I can understand why you'd see that and be hesitant to back him tonight.
My bet here is very much built around expected volume, and what Matthews does when he operates with said volume. Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs are visiting the New York Islanders tonight, a team that is allowing 35.3 shots per game at home this season and the second-most SOG overall on the season.
They've been particularly vulnerable to centers, allowing the most shots per game to the position this season.
Matthews now has 10+ shot attempts in five of his last six games, and this matchup would suggest similar volume is coming. Over the past three seasons, when Matthews logs 10+ attempts, he's over this 4.5 line at a 75% clip across 55 games. Even with just 8+ attempts he still hits this line at a 64% rate. I'm willing to to take a chance on him here in a soft matchup.
More must-reads: