NHL best bets: Western Conference Finals betting strategy
The Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights is set, with Game 1 Friday night in Vegas at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Stars swept the Golden Knights this year, and below we'll break down how those matchups fared, postseason statistics, the top players and our betting takes on this series.
Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Odds to win series: Vegas -140, Dallas +120
Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: VGK -135, DAL +115
- Total: 5.5 goals (-110)
- Puckline: VGK -1.5 (+190), DAL +1.5 (-225)
Previous meetings this year:
- Dallas 2, Vegas 1
- Dallas 3, Vegas 2
- Dallas 4, Vegas 0
Top players this postseason
Vegas
- Jack Eichel: 6 goals, 8 assists, 39 shots
- Mark Stone: 5 goals, 7 assists, 21 shots
- Jonathan Marchessault: 5 goals, 5 assists, 46 shots
- Chandler Stephenson: 6 goals, 4 assists, 16 shots
- William Karlsson: 5 goals, 3 assists, 21 shots
Goalie: Adin Hill (.934 SV%, 2.19 GAA)
Dallas
- Roope Hintz: 9 goals, 10 assists, 40 shots
- Jason Robertson: 2 goals, 10 assists, 37 shots
- Joe Pavelski: 8 goals, 2 assists, 19 shots
- Max Domi: 3 goals, 8 assists, 21 shots
- Tyler Seguin: 5 goals, 4 assists, 37 shots
Goalie: Jake Oettinger (.903 SV%, 2.75 GAA)
Betting take to begin series
This is going to be a fun one. We have two strong offenses, and two goalies performing well when it matters most. Roope Hintz and Jonathan Marchessault are the two names to watch as this series gets going, as both were on an absolute tear throughout Round 2.
This has all the makings of a seven-game series. Jake Oettinger and Dallas don't tend to lose back-to-back postseason games very often, staying clean in that regard on this run. Adin Hill has performed admirably since the injury of Laurent Brossoit, shutting down the high-powered Edmonton offense when it mattered most.
Based on some location data, I'm drawn to the Dallas end for shots and point props in Game 1, though I do expect Vegas to find some goals as well. What's most interesting has been Oettinger's success against Vegas this season, holding them to just three total goals in three games. Vegas is starting to hum offensively, so I'm excited to see which side breaks first as these two get going.
The Stars certainly find more shots at home than on the road, but seeing the Golden Knights allowing over 32 shots per game regardless of location, plus the fact that Dallas notched 36+ shots in both road games against Vegas this season has me liking some Stars SOG props.
Is Jason Robertson ever going to get involved again? He failed to score a single goal in the seven games against Seattle, and surely at some point he's going to break free. Keep an eye on Hintz as mentioned, and Wyatt Johnson later in the series, the latter of whom has scored in three straight home games.
Both teams should have their moments, but I like Dallas to advance in this one. Instead of a bet there, I think we're better suited loading up a bet on this series reaching six or seven games.
Betting approach: Dallas/Vegas points props to begin series, Dallas SOG props, Series to go 6 games (+200) and Series to go 7 games (+200)
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