NHL bet of the night: Bring on the Dallas goals
We have a loaded NHL slate on this Tuesday evening, and one game in particular has us considering a few different betting angles.
The best approach may depend on the sportsbook available to you, but the game here is the Montreal Canadiens at the Dallas Stars, with puck drop set for 8:30 PM ET.
Numbers Suggest Dallas Goals Are Coming
A simple look at goal-scoring tendencies shows a wide disparity that offers betting opportunity. Dallas comes in to this game scoring the fifth-most goals per game at home in their past 10 games, averaging 3.9 in that span.
On the other end is a Montreal Canadiens team that allows the second-most goals per game on the road in their last ten (4.3) and the most shots against (38.0).
On the surface, that shows me that we can expect the horn to sound repeatedly in Dallas Tuesday. Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski should lead the way in this high-volume game.
The best approach to this gap in quality does differ, and I'm not so sure there's necessarily a right or wrong strategy.
Best Bet: Dallas over 3.5 goals in regulation (-108 on Barstool Sportsbook)
It's my understanding that Barstool is the only sportsbook that offers team totals for NHL. This is my preferred betting angle on this game if you can get it. The Stars have gone for 4+ goals in four of their last five home games, and their 3.9 average is above the line here.
As mentioned, Montreal is a terrific target, letting up 4+ goals in eight of their last nine road games. Not only that, but the sheer influx of shots they see on a nightly basis gives us the volume I covet in a bet like this.
Alternative Betting Approaches
If you're not able to bet on team total overs, I see two paths to take.
Dallas -1.5
The first is to simply bet on Dallas to cover their -1.5 spread.
The Stars are 9-1 in their last 10 home games while the Canadiens are 1-6-3 in their last ten road games. That's a stark difference in results.
With COVID issues affecting Montreal, it seems like an uphill climb for them to stay in this game.
The Canadiens come into this one losers of six straight, with their average margin of defeat 2.67 goals. Dallas should be able to cover this one.
Bet Dallas Goal Scorer Props
Here's a revolutionary take you may not get anywhere else: if Dallas is going to go over 3.5 goals scored, someone on their team has to score. Trust me, the math checks out.
In an advantageous matchup, there's value in betting on Stars player (or two) to find the back of the net. My favorite options are their two leading goal scorers, top-line mates Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski.
Pavelski is +168 to score on FanDuel and Hintz is +180 on FanDuel, both solid options.
Pavelski has six goals in his last five home games while Hintz has scored 1+ goal in 59% of games in Dallas this season.
We'll wrap this with one long-shot worth consideration: Denis Gurianov, who is +300 to score on FanDuel. Gurianov has a goal in back-to-back home games.
Good luck!
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